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1、西南大學(xué)碩十學(xué)位論文碳轉(zhuǎn)型起到較為穩(wěn)定的促進(jìn)作用;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的作用呈現(xiàn)出不穩(wěn)定性,是山西省經(jīng)濟(jì)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵所在。(4)在12種“碳排放.GDP”式情景中,~.B2情景是碳減排優(yōu)先角度下的理想情景,相應(yīng)的碳排放強(qiáng)度年增長(zhǎng)率為-4.33%、GDP年增長(zhǎng)率為7%;“A4一B3”情景是兼顧經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)效益的最佳愿景,相應(yīng)的碳排放強(qiáng)度年增長(zhǎng)率為--4.33%、GDP年增長(zhǎng)率為13%。調(diào)整優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源結(jié)構(gòu),提高技術(shù)進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率以及加強(qiáng)政府規(guī)制是實(shí)現(xiàn)山西省煤炭資源型經(jīng)濟(jì)低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的有效路徑。關(guān)鍵詞:資源型經(jīng)濟(jì)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型情景分析山西省-一
2、AbstractResearchonLowCarbonTransformationofCoalResource—basedEconomyinShanxiProvinceMajor:HumanGeographyMaster:YanXiaoSupervisor:AssociateProfessorTuJianjunAbstractTheresource-basedeconomyoftenleadstoresource—basedregionintotheplightofthe“resourcecurse”,andtransitionistheon
3、lywaytoachievesustainabledevelopment,Low—carboneconomynotonlyputforwardanewrequirementforthetransformationofresource-basedeconomy,butalsoprovidesanewopportunity.ShanxiProvinceisatypicalcoalresources-basedeconomyprovinceinChina,itscarbonemissionsandcarbonemissionsperunitofGD
4、Parelocatedinthefrontinthewholecountry.Low—carbontransitionofeconomyinShanxiprovinveisnotonlytheowninternaldemand,butalsotheextemalneedsofthenationalcarbonreductiontargets.Basedonthese,thispaperexpandsthestudyinaccordance謝也theresearchideas“statusquoanalysis-therestructuring
5、factoranalysis·scenarioanalysisoftransition—thetransitionpathanalysis”.Firstly,theeconomicdevelopmentandcarbonemissionstatusofShanxiProvinceduring1995and2010areanalyzed.Secondly,tKSpaperanalyzestheinfluenceofeconomicsize,industrialstructure,energystructure,technologicalprog
6、ress,populationsize,governmentregulationfortheeconomiclow-carbontransitionusingLMDImethod.Thirdly,thispapercomparativelyanalyzesthe12kindsof”GDP-carbonemissionintensity”scenarios.Finaly,fourtransformationpathesareputforwardfromindustrialstructure,energystructure,technologic
7、aladvances,andgovernmentregulationaspects.Themainconclusionsareasfollows.(1)Generallyspeaking,theeconomyofShanxiProvincewasrisingfrom1995to2000.Comparedwiththenationalexistence,thereareseveralproblems,forexample,relativelyslowpaceofdevelopment,theGDPgrowthratefluctuations,t
8、hehighproportionofsecondaryindustryandrelativelystagnantdevelopmentoftertiaryindus