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1、第33卷第17期電網(wǎng)技術(shù)Vol.33No.172009年9月PowerSystemTechnologySep.2009文章編號(hào):1000-3673(2009)17-0185-06中圖分類號(hào):TM734文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:A學(xué)科代碼:470·4054基于云模型的短期電價(jià)預(yù)測112栗然,崔天寶,肖進(jìn)永(1.華北電力大學(xué)電氣與電子工程學(xué)院,河北省保定市071003;2.華能上安電廠,河北省石家莊市050310)Short-TermElectricityPriceForecastingBasedonCloudModel1
2、12LIRan,CUITian-bao,XIAOJin-yong(1.SchoolofElectrical&ElectronicEngineering,NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Baoding071003,HebeiProvince,China;2.HuanengShang’anPowerPlant,Shijiazhuang050310,HebeiProvince,China)ABSTRACT:Atpresent,therearevariouselectricit
3、yprice程,得到了電價(jià)和負(fù)荷的概念模型。通過極大判定法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)forecastingmethodssuchastime-series,neuralnetwork,集進(jìn)行軟劃分,建立電價(jià)與負(fù)荷的布爾型數(shù)據(jù)庫,然后根據(jù)wavelettransformandsoon,howeverthesemethodscan給定的支持度和置信度軟域值,采用基于云的關(guān)聯(lián)知識(shí)挖掘merelygiveouttheforecastedresultsatrequiredpointoftime.算法,得到時(shí)間、負(fù)荷和電價(jià)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則
4、。最后,以時(shí)Inthispaper,atfirsttheconceptandfeaturesofcloudmodel間、負(fù)荷的合取作為規(guī)則前件,以電價(jià)作為規(guī)則后件,建立arepresented,theprocessofthediscretizationofelectricity規(guī)則發(fā)生器,根據(jù)挖掘出的規(guī)則進(jìn)行預(yù)測。該文所提方法得priceandloaddataandtheconceptzoomingbasedoncloud到的預(yù)測結(jié)果是一系列不確定的離散點(diǎn)的集合,集合中的每modelaregiventhe
5、naconceptualmodelsofpriceandloadare一個(gè)點(diǎn)都可作為預(yù)測結(jié)果提供給用戶,用戶可以根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)和achieved.Bymeansofgreatdeterminationlawtheelastic其它信息來適當(dāng)選擇結(jié)果,也可以將所有點(diǎn)的期望值作為結(jié)classificationofthedatasetareconductedandtheBoolean果提供給用戶。databaseofelectricitypriceandloadisestablished;then關(guān)鍵詞:電價(jià)預(yù)測;云
6、模型;數(shù)據(jù)離散化;概念躍升;不確accordingtogivensupportdegreeandconfidencelevelofsoft定性推理;關(guān)聯(lián)知識(shí)挖掘;前件;后件domainvaluesandbyuseofcloudbasedminingalgorithmforassociativeknowledge,theassociationrulesamongtime,load0引言andelectricitypriceareobtained.Finally,takingtheconjunctionoft
7、imeandloadasthepremiseoftherulesandthe電價(jià)是整個(gè)電力市場的杠桿和支點(diǎn),在整個(gè)電priceastheconsequentoftherules,arulegeneratorisbuiltand力市場中發(fā)揮著核心的作用。電力價(jià)格形成機(jī)制是forecastingisproceededbytheminedrules.Theforecasting否合理、電力價(jià)格體系結(jié)構(gòu)是否健全關(guān)系到整個(gè)電resultsoftheproposedmethodisasetofaseriesofunc
8、ertain力市場是否能夠健康、平穩(wěn)地運(yùn)行。discretepointsandeverypointofthesetcanbeofferedtothe由于電價(jià)預(yù)測和負(fù)荷預(yù)測有一定的相似性,在userasforecastingresult,andtheusercanselecttheseresults理論上負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法可用于電價(jià)預(yù)測。文獻(xiàn)[1]基于properlyaccordingtotheirexperienceandother