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1、IntroductiontoBayesianStatisticsmICINTCNNIALTHEWlLEYBICENTENNIAL-KNOWLEDGEFORGENERATIONSGachgenerationhasitsuniqueneedsandaspirations.WhenCharlesWileyfirstopenedhissmallprintingshopinlowerManhattanin1807,itwasagenerationofboundlesspotentialsearchingforanidentity.Andwewere
2、there,helpingtodefineanewAmericanliterarytradition.Overhalfacenturylater,inthemidstoftheSecondIndusrrialRevolution,itwasagenerationfocusedonbuildingthefuture.Onceagain,wewerethere,supplyingthecriticalscientific,technical,andengineeringknowledgethathelpedframetheworld.Thro
3、ughoutthe20thCentury,andintothenewmillennium.nationsbegantoreachoutbeyondtheirownbordcrsandancwintcrnationalcommunitywasborn.Wileywasthere,expandingitsoperationsaroundtheworldtoenableaglobalexchangeofideas,opinions,andknow-how.For200years,Wileyhasbeenanintegralpartofeachg
4、eneration’sjourney,enablingtheflowofinfomiationandunderstandingnecessarytomeettheirneedsandfulfilltheiraspirations.Today,boldncwtechnologicsarechangingthewaywcliveandlearn.Wileywillbethcrc,providingyouthcmust-havcknowlcdgcyouneedtoimaginenewworlds,newpossibilities,andnewo
5、pportunities.Generationscomeandgo,butyoucanalwayscountonWileytoprovideyoutheknowledgeyouneed,whenandwhereyouneedit!4WILLIAMJ.PESCEPETERBOOTHWlLEYPRESIDENTANDCHIEFEXECMVEOWCERCHAIRMANOFTHEBOARDIntroductiontoBayesianStatisticsSecondEditionWilliamM.BolstadUniversityofWaihtoD
6、epartmentofStatisticsHamilton,NewZealandBICENTENNIALBICENTENNIALWILEY-INTERSCIENCEAJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,PublicationCopyright02007byJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.AllrightsreservedPublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.Nopartofthispublicationma
7、ybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthor
8、izationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDr
