資源描述：
《Wiley (2004) Introduction to Bayesian Statistics》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫(kù)。
1、PrefaceHowThisTextWasDevelopedThistextgrewoutofthecoursenotesforanIntroductiontoBayesianStatisticscoursethatIhavebeenteachingattheUniversityofWaikatoforthepastfewyears.MygoalindevelopingthiscoursewastointroduceBayesianmethodsattheearliestpossiblestage,andcoverasimilarrangeoftopicsasatraditionali
2、ntroductorystatisticscourse.ThereiscurrentlyanupsurgeinusingBayesianmethodsinappliedstatisticalanalysis,yettheIntroductiontoStatisticscoursemoststudentstakeisalmostalwaystaughtfromafrequentistperspective.Inmyview,thisisnotright.StudentswithareasonablemathematicsbackgroundshouldbeexposedtoBayesia
3、nmethodsfromthebeginning,becausethatisthedirectionappliedstatisticsismoving.MathematicalBackgroundRequiredBayesianstatisticsusestherulesofprobabilitytomakeinferences,sostudentsmusthavegoodalgebraicskillsforrecognizingandmanipulatingformulas.Ageneralknowledgeofcalculuswouldbeanadvantageinreadingt
4、hisbook.Inparticular,thestudentshouldunderstandthattheareaunderacurveisfoundbyintegration,andthatthelocationofamaximumoraminimumofacontinuousdifferentiablefunctionisfoundbysettingthederivativefunctionequaltozeroandsolving.Thebookisself-containedwithacalculusappendixstudentscanreferto.However,the
5、actualcalculususedisminimal.xiiixivPREFACEFeaturesoftheTextInthistextIhaveintroducedBayesianmethodsusingastepbystepdevelopmentfromconditionalprobability.InChapter4,theuniverseofanexperimentissetupwithtwodimensions,thehorizontaldimensionisobservable,andtheverticaldimensionisunobservable.Unconditi
6、onalprobabilitiesarefoundforeachpointintheuniverseusingthemultiplicationruleandthepriorprobabilitiesoftheunobservableevents.Conditionalprobabilityistheprobabilityonthatpartoftheuniversethatoccurred,thereduceduniverse.Itisfoundbydividingtheunconditionalprobabilitybytheirsumoverallthepossibleunobs
7、ervableevents.Becauseofwaytheuniverseisorganized,thissummingisdownthecolumninthereduceduniverse.Thedivisionscalesthemupsotheconditionalprobabilitiessumtoone.ThisresultknownasBayes’theoremisthekeytothiscourse.InChapter6thispa
