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1、推動產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級是控制煤炭消費的根本途徑INTEGRATINGCOALCAPWITHINDUSTRYTRANSFORMATION楊宏偉YANGHONGWEI國家發(fā)展和改革委員會能源研究所ENERGYRESEARCHINSTITUTE,NDRC高耗能行業(yè)是控制煤炭消費的關(guān)鍵ENERGYINTENSIVESECTORSAREKEYFORCOALCAPPower,iron&steel,cement,coke我國煤炭消費90%集中在電力、鋼鐵、accountforChina’s90%coal建材、化工、煉焦、建筑等行業(yè)consumption電力行業(yè)占工業(yè)部門煤炭消費
2、一半以上Coal-firedpoweraccountsforhalfofindustrialcoalconsumption12%6%發(fā)電鋼鐵15%建材53%化工其他14%高耗能行業(yè)控煤形勢嚴峻CHALLENGESFORCOALCAPININDUSTRYSECTOR產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)量過剩矛盾突出Pervasiveover-capacity?Over-capacityandexportiniron&?鋼鐵產(chǎn)能過剩問題嚴重，大規(guī)模出steelsector口矛盾突出?Decreasingutilizationrateincoal-?火電發(fā)電利用小時數(shù)大幅下降；棄firedpo
3、wersector風(fēng)、棄水、棄光問題突出?Less-developedwind,solarandhydropower?建筑空置率高，大拆大建問題普遍?Massdemolitioninbuildingsector?煤化工發(fā)展形勢復(fù)雜?Mixedchallengesincoal-chemicalsector體制機制等深層次改革矛盾凸顯Institutionalbarriers經(jīng)濟增長下行壓力加大Downwardpressureofeconomicgrowth穩(wěn)增長壓力下擴大投資可能拉動煤炭需求Impactsfrompotentialstimuluspolicie
4、s重點行業(yè)總量控制是控煤的重要前提CAPPINGINDUSTRIALCAPACITYISAPREREQUISITE高耗能行業(yè)整體步入峰值飽和階段Energyintensivesectorenteringpeakstage?鋼鐵、水泥等步入飽和發(fā)展階段Fastdevelopmentinmiddleandwesternregions?部分高耗能產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)達到峰值Strengtheneliminatingbackwardcapacity?電力消費增速明顯放緩andrestrictingexport?房地產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)增速放緩新增粗鋼產(chǎn)能（萬噸/年）中西部地區(qū)高耗能
5、行業(yè)發(fā)展仍然較快Annualincreasedironcapacity3500強化淘汰落后產(chǎn)能30002500嚴格控制高耗能產(chǎn)品出口200015001000推進產(chǎn)業(yè)兼并重組結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化500020092010201120122013明確十三五重點行業(yè)煤炭消費總量控制目標SPECIFY13FYPCOALCAPTARGETSFORKEYSECTORS綜合行業(yè)發(fā)展、環(huán)境容量、水資源約束等，明確各行業(yè)Setcoalcaptargetsforkeyenergyintensivesectorsbasedonindustrialdevelopment,environment煤
6、炭消費總量控制目標constraints,andwaterresources2020年煤炭消費總量控制在27.2億噸標準煤Coalconsumptionshouldbecappedaround2.72billiontcein202030.200.340.220.310.250.890.450.5427.20鋼鐵水泥其他建筑電力Iron&steelcementelsebuilding焦炭現(xiàn)代煤化工powercokecoalchemical2020基準情景2020煤控情景2020RefScenario2020CoalCapScenario高耗能行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展：增加
7、值與產(chǎn)量增長“脫鉤”INDUSTRYTRANSFORM:DECOUPLINGFROMENERGYCONSUMPTION日本主要工業(yè)行業(yè)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量與增加值關(guān)系Value-addedinindustrysectorandmainproductsoutputinJapan工業(yè)內(nèi)部轉(zhuǎn)型：結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和增加附加值INDUSTRYTRANSFORM:STRUCTURALCHANGEANDINCREASEVALUE-ADDEDMostenergyintensivesectorsarelowvalue-added我國主要高耗能行業(yè)普遍處于國際產(chǎn)業(yè)分工低端Promotesector
8、structuralchangeandoptimiz
