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1、AnalysingthetermsoftradeeffectonGDPandemploymentinthepresenceoflowrealunitlabourcostsXichuan(Mark)ZhangStuartGourleyFranklinSorianoAustralianBureauofStatisticsOutline!Backgroundandmotivation!Descriptiveandbusinesscycleanalysis!VECMexploratoryanalysis!RemarksAustralianBureauofStatisticsBac
2、kground&motivationAustralianBureauofStatisticsBackground&motivationAustralianBureauofStatisticsDescriptiveanalysisAustralianBureauofStatisticsDescriptiveanalysis!Thetermsoftradeeffect,realgrossdomesticincome(RDGI)anddomesticfinaldemand(DFD)?Relativepricechangenotdirectlyreflectedinvolumem
3、easureofGDP?IncreasedrealpurchasingpoweroftheAustralianeconomy?Boosttorealincomes?FlowontodomesticdemandAustralianBureauofStatisticsBusinesscycleanalysisCrosscorrelationwithNFGDP!EmploymentisusuallyalaggingindicatorofGDP.!RGDIandDFDareusuallycoincidentindicatorofGDP!Theseusualpatternsseem
4、distortedsince2004.AustralianBureauofStatisticsBusinesscycleanalysisAustralianBureauofStatisticsAimsandVECMapproach!BetterunderstandtherelationshipbetweenGDP,employment,thetermsoftradeandlabourcosts"effectoftermsoftradeshocks?"roleplayedbyhistoricallylowbutstablerealunitlabourcosts?!Canth
5、erecentrelationshipbetweenGDPandemploymentbeexplainedbythesefactors?!Analysisisdatadriven.Noapriorieconomicstructureimposed.AustralianBureauofStatisticsAimsandVECMapproach!Multivariatetimeseriesmodel-vectorerrorcorrectionmodel(VECM).!Variableschosen:?non-farmrealGDP(NFGDP)?totalemployedpe
6、rsons(EMP)?thetermsoftrade(TOT)?realunitlabourcosts(RULC)?thegapbetweenDFDandGDP(DFDGap)?thetradeweightedindex(TWI)!RGDIisdirectlyderivedfromTOTandGDPandexcludedduetocollinearitywithTOTAustralianBureauofStatisticsDirectandindirectrelationshipsbetweenthevariables!Identifiedmodeldynamics-Gr
7、angercausalitytestsAustralianBureauofStatisticsLongrunrelationships!CointegrationbetweenGDP,employmentandrealunitlabourcostslog(EMP)=(t-stats)t-10.436log(NFGDP)(24.383)t-1-0.649log(RULC)(-4.526)t-1#LowrealunitlabourcostssupportthelongrunlevelofemploymentAustralianBu
