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1、!"#$%&(ChineseJournalofAgrometeorology)2010,31(4):621-626doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.04.025)ob*+.,b-??._`ࢣ>?1,2,22_`ab,4c(1?1P+P%*++?,?1723000;2ü%ùKá[%&??c,ü*710015)67:vKA?üz$2>>]M,?Xz$è8?z??BK:?1ù,2jz$è8wS_qrs、%hh¤lz$_b=,da§?{?S7%&cd,cd?40a(1970-2009k)S%el?z?K[h¥|?@,?|[?F
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4、:1ùklMèrkl?v667%,1ù£eù2010k??Gd,1ù~z?k,§??d`。89::??Boi;?Gê£e;1|IndexofFrostDamageforAppleBlossomandItsForecastMethodinShaanxiFruitBase1,222CHAIQian,LIKe,LIULu(1.CollegeofAtmosphericSciences,LanzhouUniversity,Lanzhou72300
5、0,China;2ShaanxiMeteorologicalServingStationforEconomicalCrop,Xi′an710015)Abstract:InordertoimprovecapabilityofdisasterpreventionandmitigationofShaanxifruitsindustry,andtakequantifiedfrostdamageforecastduringappleblossom,thefrostdamageindexmodelduringappleblossomwasestablished,basedonapplep
6、henologicaldataandmeteorologicaldatainlast40yearsfrom7representativemeteorologicalstations.Accordingtothemodel,thefrostdamageindexwasdividedintofivegradesfromstrongtoweak.ThroughtestingwiththeKthorderautoregression,thepredictingaccuracyratewas66.7%,whichplayedagreatroleinfrostdamageforecast
7、ingduringappleblossom.Keywords:Frostdamageindexduringblossom;Autoregressive;Forecastü_?zóè8?W。2009k?z~9-10?ù%+,~BXKW2h£N?%,32,mQT3|5647×10hmb;805;t,QBXPl¤<%。?%e24hagK6~lbù"eW。?zTvüùK315℃;?!%ev-10~-60℃,±b¥?、?!S`2b$?W。ü?zm§?
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