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1、GlobalCommoditiesResearch08November2012AgricultureWeeklyGlobalcornexportpace,USfeeddemand,andcashbasisfortheUScornmarketExhibit1:RemainingcornhectareslefttobeplantedbyArgentinefarmersasofNovember1,Commodities2012(Thousandhectares)Pierre-HenriDietz2,000(65)6882-2139pierre-henri.dietz@jpm
2、organ.com1,8001,600J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited1,400ElizabethVolynsky1,200(1-212)834-40211,000elizabeth.m.volynsky@jpmorgan.com800JPMorganChaseBankNA600400200-200720082009201020112012ESource:BolsadeCereales,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchContent&AnalysisPage?Argentinecornplant
3、ingpacecontinuestoslowamidwetconditions:HeavyrainscontinuedinArgentinathroughouttheendofOctober—UpdateonSouthAmericanweatherandplantingprogress1currentweatherforecastspointtodryingnextweek,potentiallyfollowedbyadditionalwetpatterns.OurplantingprojectionssuggestthatfarmersWASDEpreview1ha
4、ve1.7millionhectareslefttoplant,significantlymorethaninpastCashmarketintheUSconfirmingtightnessinyearsatthistime(Exhibit1),assumingthatArgentinefarmerswillthe2012/13UScornbalance2-3harvest3.1millionhectares(leadingto23.6mmtofproduction).TheDespitecurrentlowexportcommitmentsforUSUSDAassu
5、mestheywillharvest3.8millionhectares(fora28.0mmtcorn,demandatdestinationshasnotyetdecreased3-5crop).Ifwetconditionsdonotsubside,ArgentinacouldharvestlessEconomicsofUSmeatmarkets:impactsoncornthan3.0millionhectaresofcorn.Soybeanplantingisalsoslightlyandsoybeanmealfeedingtrends5-8delayed,
6、butthereislessrisktothecropasplantingisjustbeginningandAppendix9-13soybeanscanbeplantedlater,allowingmoretimeforpotentialdrying.USDAexportsalesreportrecap14?PlantingandgrowingconditionsforcornandsoybeansinBrazilareViewsonrisk15improving:Normaltoabove-normallevelsofrainfallhavefallenover
7、Disclosures17-18thepastweekinMatoGrosso,Bahia,Goias,andMinasGerais.RecentdatafromIMEAshowthattheplantingpaceinMatoGrosso,thelargestsoybean-producingstateinBrazil,was62.5%asofNovember1,aheadofaveragepace(46.8%).ExcessmoistureconcernsinsouthernBrazilandParaguayarealsolikelysubsid
