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1、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和方法RiskAnalysisandMethodologyDavidYao姚建軍GMofLonzaGuangzhouEngineering&ConsultingCo.,Ltd廣州龍沙工程咨詢有限公司總經(jīng)理內(nèi)容Tableofcontents風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析簡(jiǎn)介IntroductionofRA風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析基本原理FundamentalofRA風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析常用方法RAcommonmethods風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布矩陣RAprofilematrix風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法/HAZOP方法，F(xiàn)MEA方法和RAMS軟件RAmethodandsoftware:HAZOP,FMEAandRAMES風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析實(shí)例C
2、asestudyslide2風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析簡(jiǎn)介RiskAnalysisIntroduction什么是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析（（（RA）？WhatisRA?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的背景/Riskdefinition：化工醫(yī)藥行業(yè)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)中，常面臨采用高新技術(shù)、巨額投資、龐大人員隊(duì)伍組織以及持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)等特點(diǎn)，給項(xiàng)目帶來(lái)大量不確定因素，即為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。Chemicalandpharmaceuticalprojectsareusuallyinvolvedwithhightechnology,largeinvestments,massivemanpowerorganizationetc.,whichwouldbringal
3、otofuncertainfactorstoprojectconstructionandthatisrisk.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的范圍/Scopeofrisk：包括工程設(shè)計(jì)、技術(shù)方案、操作流程、軟硬件選型以及人員安全等。Coversengineeringdesign,technicalsolution,operationprocedure,software/hardwareselectionandsafetyetc.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的目的：GoalofRA有效控制、減少或消除上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。Effectivelycontrol,reduceoreliminatetherisks.slide3風(fēng)
4、險(xiǎn)分布矩陣RiskProfileMatrix風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布矩陣即為將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)根據(jù)Riskprofilematrixstudiesrisksonthebasisof發(fā)生的概率Occurrenceprobability后果的嚴(yán)重性（包括人員因素、環(huán)境影響、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失、經(jīng)營(yíng)中斷等方面）Severityoftheconsequences(includingpersonnel,environment,economiclossandbusinessinterruption)采用矩陣表格的方式表達(dá)出來(lái)，作為對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)級(jí)的量化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，以決定是否需采取和如何采取進(jìn)一步措施以降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。Riskprofil
5、ematrixprovidesawaythatcanclearlyspecifyrisksofthesystemandtheircorrespondingimpactswithinamatrix,thereforeitcanbetreatedasaqualitativestandardforriskassessment,soastojudgewhetheritneedtotakemeasurestodefeatrisk.slide4風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布矩陣RiskProfileMatrix龍LonzaEngineeringRPM沙工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布矩陣slide5風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布矩陣RiskProf
6、ileMatrix龍沙工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布矩陣LonzaEngineeringRPM在AI-III、BI-II、CI和DI區(qū)域，降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施必須是工程措施。采取這些工程措施后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重新評(píng)估等級(jí)應(yīng)該在粗線以下。InareasAI-III,BI-II,CIandDI,measurestoreducetheseriskstoacceptablerisksmustbeofanengineeringnature.Are-evaluationoftheseriskswiththeassignedengineeringmeasuresmustreducetheriskleveltobelowt
7、heboldline.在AIV、BIII和CII區(qū)域，降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施可以是管理措施。采取這些管理措施以后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重新評(píng)估等級(jí)應(yīng)在粗線以下。InareasAIV,BIIIandCIImeasurestoreducetheseriskstoacceptablerisksmaybeadministrativeinnature.Are-evaluationoftheseriskswiththeassignedadministrativemeasuresmustreducetheriskleveltobelowt
