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1、TheDepressionof2008byFredE.FoldvaryTheDepressionof2008byFredE.FoldvarySecondedition,Sept.18,2007Copyright2007.Allrightsreserved.Permissiontocopyexcerptsforpublicationisgrantedprovidedthatfullcredit(author,year,title,publisher,pagenumbers)isgivenandacopyofthepubli
2、cationissenttotheGutenbergPress.ISBN0-9603872-0-XTheGutenbergPressPOBox9597BerkeleyCA94709gutenbergpress@pobox.com1RecessionsanddepressionsTheU.S.economyaswellasmuchoftheglobaleconomywillverylikelyfallintoadepressionin2008.Thisbookletwillexplainwhytherewillbearec
3、essionanddepressionbytheendofthedecadeof2000-2010,andwhythemostprobableyearis2008.Youwilllearnhowyoucanminimizeyourlossesorevengainfromthisdepression,andhowgovernmentpoliciesneedtochangetopreventfuturedepressions.Weneedtofirstbeclearonthedifferencebetweenarecessi
4、onandadepression.Arecessionisrelatedtotheword“recede,”meaningtofallback.Aneconomicrecessionisafallintotaloutputthatlastsforasignificanttimeinterval.IntheU.S.,arecessionisusuallyrecognizedwhenthegrossdomesticproduct,thetotaloutputoflegallyproducedgoods,fallsduring
5、twoconsecutivequarters,i.e.forsixmonths.Aneconomyisdepressedwhenoutputfallsbelowthelong-runtrend.ThereforeadepressionbeginsduringarecessionwhenGDPfallsbelowthelong-runtrendandendsintherecoverywhenGDPrisesabovethattrend.Inthenewsmedia,“recession”isoftenusedtorefer
6、to“depression,”buthereIwillbepreciseandusethedefinitionsindicatedhere.So,theeconomyisstillindepressionwhentheeconomyrecoversandexpandsbutisstillbelowthelong-runtrend.Itwouldbemoremeaningfultomeasurearecessionasafallinper-capitaGDPratherthanintotalGDP.Inthelongrun
7、,nationalincomegrowswithanincreasingpopulation,soifthepopulationgrowsbyonepercentandtheeconomyonlygrowsbyhalfapercent,theeconomyisnotregardedasinrecession,buttheaveragepersonhassufferedadropinincome.However,Iwillusethestandardcriterionoftotaloutput.Money,realesta
8、te,andbusinesscyclesSincethisisaninformativeworkandnotanovel,Iwillprovidethepunchlineupfrontratherthanleaveyouinsuspenseuntiltheendofthebooklet.Foramorethoroug
