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1、ABGlobalResearch14June2019GlobalMacroStrategyGlobalFXAtlas:Shouldn'ttheUSDbeweaker?WhateverhappenedtotheendofUSexceptionalismtrade?Inareversalofthelastyear'sgrowthandratespatterns,USnumbersareconvergingontothoseoftherestoftheworld.Yet,therehasbeennoreversal
2、inthecurrencymarkets,merelyaslowingoflastyear'sUSDappreciation.Growthdifferentialsfailtoframebroadmovesincurrenciesinthebottom30percentileoftheglobalgrowthdistribution;theUSDtendstoremainstronginthisrange.WewererightatthatthresholdinearlyQ2,butgrowthintheres
3、toftheworldwasdisappointingatthemargin.Then,thetradewarre-started.WechangeourforecaststoshowUSDstrengthWepresentnewforecasts,whichhavetheUSDstrongeragainstmostcurrencies,barthesafehavens.Thebulkofthestrengthislikelytobeseenthisyear.WeseeagentletopintheUSDlat
4、ethisyear/earlynextyearasglobalgrowthslowlyimproves,buttheEURislikelytostillunderperformitsforwardsbyend2020.Infact,theEUR'svolatilityandskewprofiletodayisonethatmorecloselyresemblesEURtopsratherthanEURbottoms,whilepositioningisinaneutralrangethathashistoric
5、allyprovidedlittlesignal.Whatwouldmakeuschangeourmindineitherdirection?Marketsarenotunivariate,butintermsofimportance,thevariablewearemostfocusedonisgrowthintherestoftheworld.IfitisonlyarevivalinUSgrowththatliftstheglobe,orifglobalgrowthremainsweak,theUSDwil
6、lnotselloff.InthisregardwewillbemostcloselywatchingChina'sgrowthandtradenumbers.Itsdecliningimportintensity,atrendindependentofthetradewar,ishelpfulfortheUSDmediumterm.ButifthetradewarforcesChinaintoanaggressivestimulus(littlesignofthissofar),ironicallyitcou
7、ldprovetobeUSDbearisheventually,ifitimprovesglobalgrowthenoughtolureUSassetmanagersawayfromhome.JPYstrongeronthecrosses;BrexitrisktoweighonGBPUSD'sbroadstrengthisreflectedinthedownwardrevisionsacrosstheG10forecasts,withtheexceptionoftheJPY.Whileyenupsideagai
8、nstthedollarfromcurrentlevelsislimited,inourview,amorechallengingriskenvironmentisconsistentwithstrongerJPYonthecrosses.Elsewhere,'no-deal'Brexitriskscouldresurfaceagainsoon,adynamicthatislikely
