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1、RELIABILITYEVALUATIONOFCOMPOSITEPOWERSYSTEMSINCLUDINGTHEEFFECTSOFHURRICANESADissertationbyYONGLIUSubmittedtotheOfficeofGraduateStudiesofTexasA&MUniversityinpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsforthedegreeofDOCTOROFPHILOSOPHYDecemberof2010MajorSubject:ElectricalEngineeringReliabilityEvaluati
2、onofCompositePowerSystemsIncludingtheEffectsofHurricanesCopyright2010YongLiuRELIABILITYEVALUATIONOFCOMPOSITEPOWERSYSTEMSINCLUDINGTHEEFFECTSOFHURRICANESADissertationbyYONGLIUSubmittedtotheOfficeofGraduateStudiesofTexasA&MUniversityinpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsforthedegreeofDOCTOROFP
3、HILOSOPHYApprovedby:ChairofCommittee,ChananSinghCommitteeMembers,GarngM.HuangAlexSprintsonNatarajanGautamHeadofDepartment,CostasN.GeorghiadesDecember2010MajorSubject:ElectricalEngineeringiiiABSTRACTReliabilityEvaluationofCompositePowerSystemsIncludingtheEffectsofHurricanes.(December2010)Yo
4、ngLiu,B.E.,HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnology;M.E.,NanyangTechnologicalUniversityChairofAdvisoryCommittee:Dr.ChananSinghAdverseweathersuchashurricanescansignificantlyaffectthereliabilityofcompositepowersystems.Predictingtheimpactofhurricanescanhelputilitiesforbetterpreparednessandmak
5、eappropriaterestorationarrangements.Inthisdissertation,theimpactofhurricanesonthereliabilityofcompositepowersystemsisinvestigated.Firstly,theimpactofadverseweatheronthelong-termreliabilityofcompositepowersystemsisinvestigatedbyusingMarkovcut-setmethod.TheAlgorithmsfortheimplementationisdev
6、eloped.Here,two-stateweathermodelisused.Analgorithmforsequentialsimulationisalsodevelopedtoachievethesamegoal.Theresultsobtainedbyusingthetwomethodsarecompared.Thecomparisonshowsthattheanalyticalmethodcanobtaincomparableresultsandmeantimeitcanbefasterthanthesimulationmethod.Secondly,theimp
7、actofhurricanesontheshort-termreliabilityofcompositepowersystemsisinvestigated.Afuzzyinferencesystemisusedtoassessthefailurerateincrementofsystemcomponents.Here,differentmethodsareusedtobuildtwotypesoffuzzyinferencesystems.Consideringthefactthathurricanesusual
