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1、外文翻譯RegionalExchangeRateArrangements:LessonsfromEuropeforEastAsiaMaterialSource:GraduateInstituteforInternationalStudies,GenevaandCEPR，F(xiàn)ebruary2002Author:CharlesWyplosz1IntroductionWhentheEuropeanUnioncountriesagreedinMaastrichttolaunchamonetaryunionsometenyearsago,theprojectwasoftendeemed
2、unrealisticanddoomedtofailure.Itisnowseenasablueprintforotherregionsintheworld,inparticularinEastAsia.TheattractionoftheEuropeanMonetaryUnion(EMU,thereafter)liespartlyintherecentpopularityofthehollowing-outhypothesiswhichholdsthat,inaworldofhighcapitalmobility,theonlysustainableexchangerat
3、eregimesarepurelyflexibleratesandhardpegs(monetaryunions,currencyboard,dollarization).Arrangementsthatfallinthemiddle,fixedandadjustableexchangerateswithsetorcrawlingpegs,arebelievedtohaveashortlifespan.Thenewwisdom,alreadychallengedbytheArgentineandebacle,needstobetakenwithgreatcautionand
4、,inparticular,thelessonsfromEuropecanbehighlymisleading.Exchangeratearrangementsshouldneverbeseenaspermanent.Infact,allofthemhavearelativelyshorttimespan.Eversincewediscoveredfiatmoney,exchangerateregimeshavecomeandgone,andtheyrarelywentgracefully.Exchangerateregimesarebestseenasthetempora
5、ryresponsetoaparticularhistoricalepisodeinaparticularcountry,apointpreviouslyemphasizedbyFrankel(1999).Europe’ssuccessfultomonetaryunionisonlythelateststageofalongevolutionthatstartedafterWorldWarI.Then,thenon-cooperativeefforttorebuildtheGoldStandardresultedinseriousmisalignmentsandeventu
6、allycollapsed.ThesubsequentshifttodirtyfloatingwasmarredbycompetitivedevaluationswhichallbutscuttledtradewithinEurope.Thatinterwarexperienceandthewarthatfollowedhaveleftadeepmark.ThecurrentgenerationofEuropeansstillregardmonetaryarrangementsasakeyelementoftheoverwhelmingefforttoneveragaina
7、llowhostilitiestoflareupontheircontinent.Thisbackgroundisessentialtograspthesignificanceofmonetaryunionandtheregimesthatprecededit.Themainthemeofthispaperisthatmonetaryunionisindeedadesirableaim,atleastataregionalleveland,maybe,attheworldlevelinthe(very)longru
