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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDate3April2020EconomicsFocus:InAsia,whiletheBoKislikelytotakeapausenextweek,weexpectmoremonetaryeasinginthemonthstocome,alongwithathirdroundofextrabudgetexpansionaseconomicrecoverywilllikelybelimiteduntilQ3.InCEEMEA,thefocusnextw
2、eekwillbeoncentralbankmeetingsinPolandandIsrael,andweexpecttheMPCtocutpolicyratesatbothmeetingsinordertosupporttheeconomies(50bpsinPolandand15bpsinIsrael),asCOVID-19casescontinuetorise.WatchforMarchCPIinRussia,Egypt,andHungary.WhileinHungaryandEgypt,weexpecttheheadlineinflationtoeaseonlowerglob
3、aloilpricesandsubdueddemand,inflationinRussiawillincreaseasRUBdepreciationsinceFebruarybeginstofeedintoprices.InLatAmweexpectBrazil’sinflationdatatoshowanotherdeclineascommoditypriceshavefallenandfinancialconditionstightened.InMexico,inflationdatashouldshowaheadlineprintofaround3.6%whileIPdataw
4、illshowthateconomycontinuedtoweakenevenbeforetheCovid-19pandemichitMexico.ActivityshouldhavealsoweakenedinArgentinawereweexpecta2%y/ydeclineofIP.InChile,inflationdataforMarchislikelytobedrivenbyrecentFXdepreciation.InPeru,marketswillfocusontheinteractionoftheexecutiveandlegislativebranchesinthe
5、contextofthepensionfundbill.StrategyFocus:Globalmarketshavecalledatruceaspolicyresponsesgainedtraction.EMpolicyresponseshavealsobuildoverthepastweek,revealingboththescopeforsupportandtherelativesizesofmonetaryandfiscalammunition.Asexpected,givenshallowercreditmarketsandfiscalbuffers,EM'srespons
6、eissmaller-especiallyonthefiscalfront-with(over)relianceonmonetaryexpansion.Thelatterwilllikelycontinuetoweighoncurrencies,especiallywhereBoPanddebtmetricsaremostunfavorable-andthustherisksofmonetizationlarger.Incontrastwiththepost-GFCtimes,creditmetricsarelikelytodeterioratepersistentlyasthedo
7、wnturnsettlesinanddebtratiosworsen.ThisweighsonfinancialconditionsforlongerandlimitstheroomforV-shapedrecoveries.nFX:EMFXremainthemaincasualtyofoverlydovishCBresponseandfiscaldeterioration.Onvaluation,thereareclearsignsofovershoot
