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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDate10July2020nEMMacro:TheCOVID-19epidemicseemstobestabilizinginmiddle–incomeEMsandpickingupsteaminrelativelypoorereconomies.NewdeathspeakedinlateJuneinLatAmwhiletheycontinuetoreachnewhighsinAfricaandAsia.Asthepublichea
2、lthsituationappearstobeturningacornerinLatAm,marketswillbemorefocusedonsignsofeconomicrecovery.Nextweek'sactivitynumbersinBrazilcouldconfirmthequickerthanexpectedrecoveryretaildatasuggests.NosuchsignsindicativeofarecoveryarevisibleinMexicowhereretailsalesdatawillbethemainreleaseoverth
3、enextcoupleofweeks.nEMFX:WebelievethemarketistradingoffsignsofstrongerreboundwithrisksofsecondwavesthatseemconcentratedintheUSandthussupportaweakerUSDandpossiblyfurtherretracementacrossEMFX.AmongEMcurrenciestheBRLandZARstandoutasthemostsensitivetoglobalfactors.WefavortheRealovertheRan
4、dastheBRLhaslaggedtherecentreboundofrisksentiment.TheMXN'srecentperformanceisinlinewithglobaldriversandweareneutralthepeso.Finally,signsofastrongerthanexpectedrecoveryinChinaaswellasdomesticdevelopmentsleadustoremainbullishCLP.nRates:Webelievethattherecentback-upinratesistechnical,but
5、italsohighlightstightvaluationsacrossmostEM.Wecontinuetofocusonselectcurvesthat,inourview,stillhaveroomtorallyasCBscompletetheircyclesorterm-premiumremainselevatedinlightofCB’scapacitytointerveneinbondmarkets.ThelatterappliestoBrazilandSouthAfrica–butFX-hedgedgivenfundamentalandpoliti
6、calrisks.WerecommendaddingonweaknessinBrazil’sshort-endaswell,andMexico’slong-endasinflationsurprisesareblipsinthedata(vs.TIIEorUSswaps).Takeprofitin(short)Mexico’sinflationbreakeventradebutholdlongColombiabreakevens.AlsoinColombia,extenddurationinbasis(takeprofitinCOLTES25svs.IBR5Yan
7、denterlongCOLTES30svs.5YIBR),butexitChileflattenerattightenedstoponchangesinpensionfundlawsallowingearlywithdrawals.nCredit:Remainconstructiveduetoabundantexternalliquidity,attractivevaluation,andexpectedreturnsofinflows(thelatestdatapointofwhichlooksencouraging).Wefocusonanalyzingthe
8、excha
