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1、TheEconomicJournal,92{March1982),129-144PrintedinGreatBritainVERTICALINTEGRATION,VARIABLEPROPORTIONSANDOLIGOPOLY*MichaelWatersonThetheoryofverticalintegrationhasattractedalotofinterestrecently,focusinguponwhethertheactofverticalintegrationwillraiseorlowerpricestothefinalconsumerandwhethe
2、ritwillraiseorlowersocialwelfare,measuredasthesumofchangesinconsumerandproducersurpluswithoutregardtodistributionorsecond-bestconsiderations.^However,developmentshavebeenalongtworatherdifferentpaths.Onestrand,representedbySchmalensee(1973),Warren-Boulton(1974)andHay(1973)amongothers(the'
3、substitutionschool',forbrevity),hasemphasisedthemotiveforamonopolisttointegrateforwardintoaperfectlycompetitiveindustryifsubstitutionbetweenitsinputandothers'ispossibleinproducingthefinalproduct.Suchintegrationeliminatesadeadweightwelfarelosscausedbydistortionininputusageduetonon-margina
4、lcostpricing,butalsoextendsthemonopolist'spowerinsettingprices.Warren-Boulton'sresults,inparticular,showthatthefinalpricepaidbyconsumerswillalmostcertainlyrise,thoughoverallwelfaremaynotdecline.Theotherapproach,revivedbyGreenhutandOhta(hereafterG-O,1976,1979)eshewsdiscussionofthepossibil
5、itiesofsubstitutionandpointsoutthat,intheirabsence,underaverywiderangeofmarketconditions,integra-tionofupstreamanddownstreamsupplierswilllowermarketpriceandincreasesocialwelfare.Commentsontheirwork(e.g.Perry,1978,HaringandKaserman,1978)havepointedoutthedichotomybetweenitandthosestudiesme
6、ntionedearlier,butG-O(1978,1979)havearguedthattheir'assumptionsarerelevantforatleastoneparticularindustry(oil)and,assuch,theiranalysisisimportant.InorderforG-Otobeabletoarguethattheirresultsarerobustandrelevantmoregenerallythough,theywouldhavetoshowthatwhenamonopolist(oranoligopolist)int
7、egratesforwardintoamonopolisedoroligopolisticindustry,atleastasmallamountofsubstitution(plausibleinmostindustriesinthelongrun)doesnotupsettheirresults.Thistheyhavenotdone,yetnorhavetheircritics(e.g.HaringandKaserman)attemptedtodemonstratetheconverse.Thepurposeofthispaperi
