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1、Chapter5UnderstandingRiskLearningObjectivesUnderstand...LO1RiskasameasureofuncertaintyaboutpayoffsLO2StatisticalmeasuresofriskLO3SystematicversusidiosyncraticriskLO4Riskreduction:hedginganddiversificationRiskmaybeafour-letterword,butit’sonewecan’tavoid.Everydaywemakedeci-sionsthatinvo
2、lvefinancialandeconomicrisk.Howmuchcarinsuranceshouldwebuy?Shouldwerefinancethemortgagenoworayearfromnow?Shouldwesavemoreforretirement,orspendtheextramoneyonanewcar?Makinganydecisionthathasmorethanonepossibleoutcomeissimilartogambling:Weputthemoneyontheroulettetableandtakeourchances.I
3、nterestinglyenough,thetoolsweusetodaytomeasureandanalyzeriskwerefirstdevelopedtohelpplayersanalyzegamesofchancelikerouletteandblackjack.Forthou-sandsofyears,peoplehaveplayedgamesbasedonathrowofthedice,buttheyhadlittleunderstandingofhowthosegamesactuallyworked.Inancienttimes,diceofvari
4、-oussortswereusedtoconsultthegods,soanyefforttoanalyzetheoddswasthoughtimproper.Buteventhosewhoignoredreligiousconcernscouldnotcorrectlyanalyzeasinglethrowofadiebecausetheydidnotunderstandtheconceptofzero.Thatmeantthatthecomplexcomputationsnecessarytodevelopatheoryofprobabilitywereimp
5、ossible.1Bythemid-17thcentury,thepowerofreligionhadwanedandmathematicaltoolshaddevelopedtothepointthatpeoplecouldbegintomakesenseoutofcards,dice,andothergames.Sincetheinventionofprobabilitytheory,wehavecometorealizethatmanyeverydayevents,includingthoseineconomics,finance,andevenweathe
6、rforecasting,arebestthoughtofasanalogoustotheflipofacoinorthethrowofadie.Forbetterorworse,wenolongertreattheserandomeventsasiftheyweredivinelyordained.Still,whileexpertscanmakeeducatedguessesaboutthefuturepathofinterestrates,inflation,orthestockmarket,theirpredictionsarereallyonlythat
7、—guesses.Andwhilemeteorologistsarefairlygoodatforecastingtheweatheradayortwoahead,economists,financialadvisors,andbusinessgurushavedismalrecords.Soun-derstandingthepossibilityofvariousoccurrencesshouldalloweveryonetomakebet-terchoices.Whileriskcannotbeeliminated,itcanoftenbemanagedeff
8、ectiv
