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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:PageBNPParibasLondonBranchTHEMESOFTHEWEEKWikeGroenenberg,HeadofEmergingMarketsResearch,CEEMEA&APACChina:Tideiscomingin4-5USDRMBisonarisingtidetowards6.70;wearewaitingtoshortitagain.InourPiotrChwiejczak,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistview,theannounce
2、mentofatargetedRRRcutshouldnotbeseenasthestartSaiUlluri,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistofashiftinthemonetarypolicystancefromtighteningtoeasing;wecontinuetoTurkEkonomiBankA.S.recommendpayingIRS.ErkinIsik,CFA,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistCEEMEA:TRYputonstress6-7BNPParibasSingaporeBranchTh
3、efallinhigh-yieldingCEEMEAcurrencieshasbeensignificantbutisunlikelyMirzaBaig,HeadofFX&IRAsiaStrategisttocontinueastheprofitaccumulatedonlongtradespriortothestartofthefallAltazDagha,AU/NZIRStrategistmeansweareunlikelytoseeaforcedunwindingofpositions.DawnKwa,AsiaGraduate
4、CzechRepublic:Receive2y2yfwdCZKratesvs.EUR8-9ThetighteningoftheCZK-EURbasiscouldtriggerariseintheCZK,curbingBancoBNPParibasBrasilS.Aabove-targetinflationandlimitingtheneedforhigherrates.EvenifinflationGabrielGersztein,HeadFX&IRLatamStrategypressurespersist,weseebenefit
5、sfortheCNBinusingalternativepolicytoolsSamuelCastro,FX&IRLatamStrategisttotightenliquidity(ratherthanraisingrates),includingFXintervention.GustavoMendonca,FX&IRLatamStrategistAssessingtheprobabilityofamarketcorrection:Caution10-13BNPParibasChinaLimitedOurmodelssuggestt
6、hatoverallmarketriskisatabnormallylowlevels.TheKunShan,ChinaStrategistcombinationofextremelylowperceivedriskandaneutralpremiumleadsustoconcludethatwhileasell-offinriskassetsisplausibleintheshortterm,itwouldTianheJi,ChinaStrategistbetemporary.Colombia:COPischeaptomodel;
7、goingbacklong14-16TheexplanatorypowerofthetermsoftraderemainsatabnormallylowlevelsandourfairvaluemodelspointtoUSDCOPbelow2,800.Perulocaldebtmonitor:Non-residents’exposureatanall-timehigh17-18Whileforeigners’shareofdomesticpublicdebtremainsthehighestinLatinAmerica,theho
8、ldingrepresentsonly24%ofinternationalreserves.NEWRECOMMENDATIONSPV01/notionalEntrylevel/costTargetStopShortUSDCOP3-mo
