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1、BRAZIL:ELECTIONTRACKERNOVEMBER2017EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconThisisaninteractivemenu.CONTENTSClinkontheboxesbelowtonavigatethroughthefile01020304POLLSGENERALINFOBIOSHISTORICALSERIES?PRESIDENT:1STROUND?CALENDAR?LULA?JO?ODORIA?PRESIDENT:?SENAT
2、ECHANGES?TVANDRADIOTIME?GERALDOALCKMIN?MARINASILVAAPPROVALRATES?POLLSMETHODOLOGY?POLITICALREFORM?JAIRBOLSONARO?LUCIANOHUCK?CONGRESS/SENATE?VOTERSPROFILE?JAQUESWAGNER?CIROGOMESCOMPOSITIONToreturntothismenu,clickonthe?FERNANDOHADDAD?HENRIQUEMEIRELLES?ELECTIONSCHANGESmenuico
3、n;tonavigatethroughslides,clickonthearrows?TEAMNovember13,2017
4、2CONTENTS01020304POLLSGENERALINFOBIOSHISTORICALSERIES?PRESIDENT:1STROUND?CALENDAR?LULA?JO?ODORIA?PRESIDENT:?SENATECOMPOSITION?TVANDRADIOTIME?GERALDOALCKMIN?MARINASILVAAPPROVALRATES?POLLSMETHODOLOGY?POLITICALRE
5、FORM?JAIRBOLSONARO?LUCIANOHUCK?CONGRESS/SENATE?VOTERSPROFILE?JAQUESWAGNER?CIROGOMESCOMPOSITION?FERNANDOHADDAD?HENRIQUEMEIRELLES?ELECTIONSCHANGES?TEAMNovember13,2017
6、301.POLLSNovember13,2017
7、4SPONTANEOUSVOTINGINTENTIONVOTINGPROSPECTS?Riseofoutliersinsurveysiscommonintheear
8、lystagesofthecampaign?Bolsonaro(PEN)hasbeenahighlightforhisincreaseinspontaneousvotingintentions21Lula(PT)181512Bolsonaro(PEN)963Jo?oDoria(PSDB)MarinaSilva(REDE)Alckmin(PSDB)0Oct-15Feb-16Jun-16Oct-16Feb-17Jun-17CNT/MDASource:CNT/MDA(Sep/17),BNPParibasNovember13,2017
9、5POTE
10、NTIALELECTORATEVOTINGPROSPECTS?Lula(PT)showsahighfloor(“assured”votes)butalsoalowceiling(highrejection)ofvoteintentions?Lesser-knowncandidateshavepotentialroomtoattractpotentialvoters?Corruptionscandalscouldweighondisapprovalratingsoftraditionspoliticians36425150544962117
11、1646382231142430151613910976586LulaMarinaSilvaGeraldoAlckminAécioNevesCiroGomesJairBolsonaroJo?oDoria(PT)(REDE)(PSDB)(PSDB)(PDT)(PEN)(PSDB)WOULDVOTEFORSURECOULDVOTEDON'TKNOWENOUGHWOULDN’TVOTEANYWAYApr/17Source:Ibope,BNPParibasNovember13,2017
12、6REJECTIONLEVELSVOTINGPROSPECT
13、S?Highlevelofrejectionamongallcandidates?Lula(PT),hasthehighestrejectionlevelamongmainpotentialc
