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1、Brazil:Lula’strial?TheAppealscourtisscheduledtodecideonMrLula’scorruptionconvictionon24January.Authors:?Iftheconvictionisunanimouslyupheld(3x0),LulawouldlikelybebarredfromrunningintheGustavoArrudapresidentialrace.Incaseofadividedverdict(2x1),uncertaintiescouldcontinue.EconomistBancoBNPPariba
2、sBrasilSA?Wehavecreatedaflowchartwiththemainpotentialoutcomesandconsequences.AppealsCourttojudgeonTheAppealsCourt(TRF-4)isscheduledtoreviewon24JanuarythecorruptionconvictionofLula’scaseon24JanuaryformerpresidentLula.Iftheconvictionisupheld,accordingtolaw,thenLulawouldbeoutofthepresidentialra
3、ce.LulawasearlierfoundguiltyofmoneylaunderingandpassivecorruptionchargesbyJudgeSergioMoroinaninvestigationrelatedtothecarwashscandal.ApanelofthreejudgeswillreviewJudgeMoro’sdecision.Theywillnotonlydecideonthecasebutalsoonthesentence.TheAppealsCourt’sdecisionwouldbemadeasfollows:first,therepo
4、rtingjudge(chosentoreviewJudgeMoro’sdecision)willspeakandvote;second,thereviewingjudgewilldeliverhisspeechandvote;andfinally,thethirdjudgecouldgiveafinalcommentandvote.Theverdictwouldbeannouncedthesameday,thoughthereisnosettime.Theverdictaswellasthescore(unanimous,ornot),arerelevantfortheupc
5、omingelection.Scenario1(likely):guilty,Threescenarioscanbedrawn(seealsotheflowchartinthenextpage):unanimousvote(3x0)1Scenario1(highprobability1):Unanimousguiltydecision(3x0).Inthiscase,Lulawouldnotbeabletorunasacandidate,evenifappealingtothesuperiorcourts.Theformerpresidentalsohaslimitedopti
6、onstodelaytheeffectivenessofthejudgement.Thedefencecanaskforclarificationaboutthedecision,aprocessthatusuallytakesonlyabout20days.Incaseofadisagreementamongthejudgesaboutthelengthofthesentence,theguiltyverdictwillhold,butthedefencecanaskforabroadreassessmentofthesentencebutnotoftheverdict("e
7、mbargosinfringentes"asitisknowninjudicialtermsinBrazil).Thisprocessrequeststheopinionofthreeotherjudgesonapanelofsix(thesamethreewhoarrivedatthedecision,plusthreeothers).Insuchascenario,thefinaldecisionmighttakeplaceinaboutsixmonths,buttheverdictwo
