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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange6October2017UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelli(+1)212250-7355JedEvans(+1)212250-8605SebastianBrownEconomicsFocus:WeexpectMAStomaintainitsneut
2、ralpolicystanceasStrategist–LatAmSingapore'sGDPgrowthslowsslightlyinQ3andexportstoimproveinotherparts(+1)212250-8191ofEMAsia.InEMEA,focusonSeptemberinflationnumbersacrossCE3,IsraelandEgypt.InLatAm,weforeseeinflationinArgentinadeceleratingbutnotenoughtoG
3、autamKalaniallowtheBCRAtobegineasing.WealsoexpectPeru’sBCRPtoholdratesatStrategist–EMEA3.50%onreducedgrowthconcernsandalreadyaccommodativemonetarypolicy+44(20)754-57066stance.StrategyFocus:WeconcentrateourrecommendationsinhighestconvictiontradesJulianaL
4、eeandkeepaneutralstanceotherwise.TheperformanceoverthepastweeksentbothSeniorEconomistsupportiveandcautioussignals:Whilemarketswithbetterfundamentalspartially+852(2203)8312retracedthemorevulnerableremainedunderpressuredespitesomeUSDrelief.?FX:Stayindefen
5、sivelongswhilewaitingformoreclarityonUSDdirection.WeGuilhermeMaronefavortheBRL(vs.CLP)inLatAmandbothRUB(vs.USDandalsoCADforStrategist-LatAmsomeoilprotection)andPLNvs.EURinEMEA.TheyscorewellonBoP,level(+1)212250-8640ofrealrates,FXreservesandbusinesscycle
6、.EUR/PLNalsopostsalowbetavs.USratesandlightpositioning.WaitforbetterlevelstosellUSD/MXN-theV-ElinaRibakovashapedtrajectoryweexpectedforthepairhasmaterializedbutrecentpoliticalChiefEconomistheadlinesandmoredifficultNAFTAnegotiationsbodeforcaution.Staylon
7、g(+44)207547-1340PENonunderperformancevs.copperandlikelyreducedintervention.ChristianWietoska?Rates:DomesticfundamentalscontinuedtoplayanimportantroleacrosslocalStrategist–EMEAfixedincome–fromthepossibilityofratesfallingbelow7.0%inBrazil,the(+44)20754-5
8、2424favorableinflationprintinRussia,toadovishNBPmeetinginPoland.Also,exceptforSouthAfrica,localauctionsacrossEMpointtoresilientdemand.OurtoppicksremainRussianOFZs–inthebellyandthelong-end(Mar-33),receiversinPLN(2Y2YIRS),ILS(3Y1Y)
