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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&17December2017IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup4.2%.KatherineGriffinEthaneup3c/galto23c
2、/galResearchAssociate(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+4.2%.Weeklyloadingsup8.5%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased4.2%inWeek#50(ended12/09/2017)vs.a3.1%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareDavidHuangup1.2%
3、.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalResearchAssociateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredavid-a.huang@db.comofweeklyloadingsincreased
4、8.5%YoY(versusa4.0%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased6.7%sequentially(vs.a28.5%increaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesup3c/galto23c/gal.Propanedown8c/galto89c/galEthanepricesrose2.5c/gallastweekto22.9c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof18c/gal)DowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD70.00B
5、uyasbuyerssteppedbackintotheethanespotmarket.Thisfollowsa4c/galAshland(ASH.N),USD70.53BuydeclinetwoweeksagoonseveraldelayedcrackerprojectsandarobustbuildEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD90.23Buyofethaneinventory.WhileUSethanesupply/demandfundamentalsremainSource:Deutsch
6、eBankloose,ethanerejection,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedfollowingtheSeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneWeeklyPricePerformanceexportfacilityinHouston.Startingin1H’18,weexpectUSethanes/dMOSfundamentalstotightenfurther,drivenby600kbpdo
7、fnewdemandfromtheHUNstart-upof8greenfieldethylenecrackersin’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,FMCweexpectethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelPOTWLKPvalue,withthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstorageVNTRcosts.BasedonDB’s’17USNatura
8、lGaspriceforecastof$3.02/MMBtu,weTSEestimateethanepriceswilllikelymovetoward30c/galbyyear-end‘17.OMNCMPPropanepricesfell8.1c/gallastweekto89.1c/gal,duepartiall
