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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&7January2018IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup3.6%.KatherineGriffinEthaneup2c/galto25c/galResearchAssociate(+1
2、)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+3.6%.Weeklyloadingsdown8.1%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased3.6%inWeek#1(ended12/30/2017)vs.a6.6%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareDavidHuangflat.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSch
3、emicalshipmentResearchAssociatetonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrendofbroader(+1)904520-5307chemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasureofweeklydavid-a.huang@db.comloadingsdecreased8.1%YoY(versusa5.9%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased15.7%sequential
4、ly(vs.a2.9%decreaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesup2c/galto25c/gal.Propanedown4c/galto93c/galEthanepricesrose2.1c/gallastweekto25.3c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof19DowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD75.42Buyc/gal).WhileUSethanesupply/demandfundamentalsremainloose,ethaneAshland(ASH.N),USD74.08Buyreject
5、ion,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedfollowingtheEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD97.11BuySeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneexportfacilitySource:DeutscheBankinHouston.WeexpectUSethanes/dfundamentalstotightenfurtherin1H’18drivenby600kbpdofnewdemandfromthestart-upof
6、8greenfieldethyleneWeeklyPricePerformancecrackersin’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetowardOLNitshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelvalue,withthepremiumreflectingDWDPfractionation,transportationandstoragecosts.BasedonDB’s’18USNaturalMOSGaspriceforecastof$3.30/MMBtu,wee
7、stimateethanepriceswilllikelymoveEMNtoward32c/galbyyear-end‘18.CMPVNTRPropanepricesfell3.9c/gallastweekto93.4c/galonlower-than-expectedTSEinventorydraw.Whilepropaneinventoriesweredown1%lastweekto67MMASHPXbbls,theyare18%and8%belowtheir3and5-yravgs,respectively.LongerHUNterm,weexpectpro
8、panei
