資源描述：
《德銀-亞洲-信貸市場(chǎng)-亞洲信貸月報(bào)：如果利率持續(xù)上升會(huì)怎樣？》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫(kù)。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCreditDate1March2018HarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalystAsiaCreditMonthly(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comWhatifrateskeeprising?ViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalyst(+65)64235726viacheslav.shilin@db.comTheworstmightbebehindusfornow,but…KarenKwan,MBA3%wast
2、helineinthesandfor10yrUSTatthestartoftheyear.ItwasalmostResearchAnalystaconsensusforecastforyearend.Itwasalsothelevelwherethecorrelation(+65)64235387betweenhigherequitiesandhigherrateswasmeanttobreak.But,thepaceofkaren.kwan@db.comincreasewassoquickthatevenbeforewegotto3%,manysta
3、rtedshiftingthegoalpostto3.25-3.5%.Nevertheless,3%perhapsremainsanimportantVikashAgarwalla,CFApsychologicallevel.Goingforward,thisfastpacemightnotcontinueintheResearchAnalystverynearterm.10yrUSTisalready50bphigherinthefirsttwomonths.Even(+65)64235718usingthemostbearishforecastof
4、3.5%foryearend,thenext50bpmovevikash.agarwalla@db.comshouldtake10months.However,inthisMonthly,weanalyzetheimplicationsforAsiacreditofusbeingwrongand10yrreaching3.5%fasterthanexpected.FrancoLamResearchAnalystThemescovered(+852)22036226franco.lam@db.com?Impactoncorporatesifcapital
5、marketsshutdown?Whichbankingsystemwillbenefitthemostfromrisingrates??LowdollarpricequalitybondsHighestconvictiontradeideas?Sovereigns:BuyMongolia2023s,Indonesia2028sSukuks&2037s;SellPhilippines2042s&BuyMalaysia2046s.?Financials:BuyWoori2024s(T2)&5.25%AT1,Mizuho2.953%2022s&2025sT
6、2,Huarong3.75%2022s&4.95%2047s,Cinda2028s&AT1,ChinaOrient2027s,PSBCAT1,AsahiLifePerp,Sirius2026s,BoChina2024T2,ICBC2.875%2022s,Taikang2022s.SellCITICLtd2027s,BoC2025s,CCBLeasing2.75%2021sandBOCOMLeasing3.5%2022s.?IGCorps:BuyAdaniPorts2022s,Bharti2025s,NewWorldChina2027s;SellLeno
7、vo2022s.?HYCorps:BuyEvergrande2023s,Ruyi2019s&2022s,Sunac2022s,SellMIE2019sKeyrecommendationchanges?Sovereigns:UpgradeSriLanka2026s&2027stoHoldfromSell;?Financials:InitiateonMUFG2028swithaBuy;DowngradeWoori2020s,NipponLife5%c2022&ICBCAsiaAT1fromBuytoHold;?IGCorps:DowngradeChinal
8、co2021sand2022stoHold;?HYCorps:UpgradeGreenland
