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1、ABGlobalResearch19June2018FixedIncomeAsiaCreditCompendiumAsiaPacificManagingthroughrefinancingcycleManagingrefinancinghurdleinto2H18andbeyondWestartedtheyearwithtightbondvaluationsandthatmarketcomplacencyhasbeenchallengedbyrisingUSratevolatilityandtheexpectationofheavyoffshore
2、AsianHYissuanceonmoreconstrainedonshorefundingaccess.SlowerChinagrowthin2H18/2019(6.6%in2018and6.4%in2019)amidstatighteningbiasandweakChinabidmaystillcarrycreditspreadswiderfromhere.EasinggrowthbutbenigncurrencyoutlookandeffectivedeleveragingshouldhoweveranchorChina'screditspr
3、eads.Wewilllikelycontinuetojigglewithsimilarvariablesin2H18butdecompressionhasalreadyhappenedinAsianHYwithacreditspreadmultipleof4.5xfrom3.7xin2017.TheconcernonsupplyshouldphaseoutwhenChinamanagesthroughtherefinancingcycle,whichisaidedbythegovernment'saccommodativepolicymeasur
4、esinbalancingrisingonshoredefaults,morecreditdifferentiationandonshore/offshorefundingchannels.AtugofwarbetweenoffshoreandonshoreRefinancingneedsforAsianissuerscouldrisetoUSD318bninFY18-20E(Chinaaloneaccountedfor60%),whencomparedtoUSD201bninFY15-17.Intheextremecasewhereonshore
5、marketremainsshutevenforrefinancingandallChineseHYdevelopers'onshorebondstoberefinancedoffshore,theamountcouldincreasetoUSD405bninFY18-20E.Wethinkafairerestimatewillbesomewhereinbetweenasdevelopersinouruniversehavemorediversifiedfundingchannels.AsmarketisbracingformoreHYissuan
6、cegivenunusedbondquota,webelievetechnicaloverhangwillremainatleastin3Q.Overall,wearenottooconcernedonrefinancingrisksforlargerdevelopersinouruniverse.Acoolerpropertymarketwillbemadeupbydevelopers'bettercash-flowmanagement,bufferincash/short-termdebtratioandhighermarketsharethr
7、oughconsolidation.MostandleastpreferredsegmentsWeexpectAsianIGspreadstowiden10bpsfromhere.ChineseBBBsunderperformedAA/As,weprefer5-7yrChinaBBBsforbettercushiontoneutralisemodestwidening.WehaveaslightbiasonAsianHYoverIGoncheapenedbondvaluationsandlessdurationexposure,thoughflig
8、httoqualityshouldreducerisktaking.WeseeAsianHYspreadstowiden4
