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1、21December2017????GoldOutlookCOMMODITIES?PRECIOUSMETALSGoldilockedwithfewbearsGlobal?Weseegoldlockedinanarrowrangein2018,supportedbyJamesSteelfinancialmarketrisksandEMdemand;raterisesfactoredinChiefPreciousMetalsAnalystHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.james.steel@us.hsbc.com?Centralbank,ETFandba
2、rdemandshouldrisemodestly;coin+12125253117salesmayrisefromlowlevels;mineandscrapsupplylimited?Price-sensitiveEMbuyerstosetfloorforrange;ouraverage2018forecastisUSD1,284/ozandUSD1,314/ozfor2019GoldpriceoutlookandforecastsWeanticipateonlymoderatelyhighergoldpricesin2018and2019,basedmostl
3、yonexpectationsofgreatersafehavenbuyingandrecoveringjewelrydemand.Tightermonetarypoliciesgloballymaycreateheadwindstoralliesbutarelargelypricedin.AstableUSDshouldnotweighonprices,butmaylimittheupside.Anyincreaseinfinancialmarketvolatilityorrisksmayaidgold.Asaresult,goldislikelytoremain
4、lockedinatradingrangeofUSD1,161/oztoUSD1,355/ozin2018.Wehighlightthefollowingdrivers:TighterG3ratespricedin;lesscertainguidance/otherrisksmayaidgoldTighteningbytheFedandothermajorcentralbankslendsapotentiallynegativebackdropforgoldbutimpactislargelypriced.However,asratesrise,forwardgui
5、dancemaybecomemoreuncertain(see2018–FX&theFed:Forwardguidancecouldloseitspower,11December),whichcouldaidgolddemandlongterm.Anysustainedequitymarketweaknesswouldencouragesafehavendemand,aswouldgeopoliticalrisksandhigherglobaltradetensions.Investmentmixed,physicaldemandweakWelookforbothE
6、TFandComexdemandtobuildin2018.Jewelrypurchasesandbardemandmayincrease,butcoinsalesareweak.Mineoutputmaybeplateauingandscrapsupplylookslimited;centralbankdemandshouldincrease.Thebalanceofthesefactors,whichweupdateinourdetaileddemandandsupplytable,leadustolowerouraveragepriceforecastssli
7、ghtlyfor2018and2019,andweadda2020forecast.Nevertheless,westilllookformodestupsideingoldnextyearandin2019.1.HSBCaveragegoldpriceforecasts______2018f_____________2019f_____________2020f___________Longterm____(USD/oz)OldNewOldNewOldNewOldNewGold1,3101,2841,3301,314--1,3401,350unchangedL
