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1、ECONOMICSGLOBALQ22018By:JanetHenryandJamesPomeroyhttps://www.research.hsbc.comGlobalEconomicsCouldthesweetspotturnsour?Theglobalsynchronisedrecoverylookssettocontinuein2018Weaddressanumberofthingsthatcouldgowrong……fromgrowthandinflationriskstomonetarypo
2、licysurprisesandtradewarsDisclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitECONOMICS●GLOBAL????Q22018ExecutiveSummaryVoteinExtel2018Whatcouldgowrong?14M
3、arch–27AprilIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight,NotquiteGoldilocks.Atleastnotlikeitwasinthelate1990swhenrapidinvestment,avoteforHSBCproductivitysurge,stronggrowth,robustwagegains,recordlowunemploymentandstillClickheretovotesubduedinflationcoinedthedescriptio
4、nofaUSeconomythatwasneithertoohotnortoocold.GlobalgrowthremainsrobustButtheglobaleconomycertainlystillseemstobeinsomethingofasweetspot.Globalgrowthbypost-crisisstandardsisveryrobustbypost-crisisstandards,allregionsoftheworldareparticipatinginasynchronis
5、edupturnandunemploymentisfallingmoreorlesseverywhere.Thedeflationriskhasbeenavertedbutinflationisgenerallyverycontainedandinterestratesarestilllow.Themainquestionfinancialmarketparticipantsareaskingthemselvesis:whatmightgowrong?ButconcernsaregrowingShou
6、ldtheybeworriedaboutgrowth?Orinflation?And,ifneither,whataboutageopoliticalshock(egafull-blowntradewar)whichmighttrigger,ataminimum,anassetpriceshock?SynchronisedbutlessdispersedSynchronisedgrowthmayhavesometimessowntheseedsofitsowndestructionintheGrowt
7、hhasalreadypeakedinpast–typicallywhenamonetaryresponsetohigherUSorglobalinflation,orexpectationofit,Japanandeurozonetriggersafinancialmarketoreconomicshocksomewhereintheworld.Butthisisnotcurrentlysomethingweareforecastingfortheyearahead.2018shouldbeanot
8、hersolidyearofgrowthintheglobaleconomy.AlthoughwethinkthatgrowthhasalreadypeakedintheeuroareaandJapan,weexpectmuchofEMtoactuallypickupmarginally.TherecentlypassedUStaxandspendingplanshavealreadyliftedourUSforecastsalittle–ourUSta
