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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaStrategyDateHongKongFeaturingPPPPart530January2018StrategyUpdatequarterlynewadditionslowingdownMichaelTong,CFALukaZhuResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036167(+852)22036173michael.tong@db.comluka.zhu@db.comPPPimplementationacceleratesin4Q,butnetinvestmentslo
2、wsdownAccordingtothelatestdatareleasefromtheMoF,totalplannedPPPinvestmentincreasedRmb0.4tr(lowerthan3Q’sRmb1.4trincrementalinvestment)toRmb18.2trby4Q17.Thequarterlylandingratereachedanewhighat38.2%in4Q17.ThenetofnewlylistedPPPprojectsintothedatabasein4Q17is359,lowerthanthenumberof3Q17duetost
3、ricterlistingrequirementsandachallengingfinancingenvironment.ThetotalinvestmentofthelandedPPPprojectsin2017(Rmb2.4tr)represents3.8%ofthetotalFAI(Rmb63.2tr).Privatecapitals’participationslightlyincreasedfrom34%to35%in3Qto4Q.PPPfocusmoreonenvironmental,ruralrevitalizationandpovertyalleviationE
4、nvironmental/greeningprojectsarelandingfaster.Thereare1,556landedenvironmental/greeningprojectswithaninvestmentofRmb1.9tr,aYoYincreaseof183landingsandinvestmentofRmb268bn,respectively.Thisisinlinewithourexpectations,aswehavehighlightedfourkeydriversforthegovernment’sstrengthenedpushonenviron
5、mentalprotectioninour2018ChinaEquityOutlookreport.MostprovincesinChinahavestartedtoapplythePPPmodeltoimplementaruralrevitalizationstrategy.394poverty-strickencounties,accountingfor47.4%ofthetotalnumberofpoverty-strickencountiesinChina,haveexploredthePPPmodeltosupportpovertyalleviation.Doc.92
6、toslowdownPPPprojectsandtighterfinancingenvironmentDocumentNo.92urgesfinancedepartmentsatalllevelstoexertscrutinyonPPPprojectsfromthedatabaselist.Accordingtomediareports(21CenturyHerald),whilebigfourbankslikeCCBandABCarestillactive,somejoint-stockbanksinChinahavecurrentlysuspendedfinancingfo
7、rnewPPPprojects,astheyarewaitingfortheresultsoftheongoingMoFPPPdatabaseclean-up,whichisscheduledtobecompletedattheendof1Q18.InfrastructureFAIgrowthlikelytoretreatby3pptin2018Infrastructureaccountedforc.25%ofFAIinvestmentinChina.Weexpectittoslowdown
