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1、金融市場交易中心2017年大宗商品市場faCommoditiesMarket概覽建行商品指數(shù)整體上行，年內(nèi)開于1529.94，收于1889.24，漲幅達21.3%。各板塊中，黑色板塊上漲30.7%，有色板塊上漲18.3%，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品板塊下跌4.2%，貴金屬板塊下跌1.21%。2017年商品價格變化情況一覽數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind、CCB1/37觀點摘要2/37作者原油：崔悅鋼鐵：袁匡濟銅：張航大豆：徐俊021-60637062021-60637071021-60637068021-60637063cuiyue1.zh@ccb.comyuankuangji.zh@ccb.co
2、mzhanghang1.zh@ccb.comxujun4.zh@ccb.com復核陸怡烽021-60637061luyifeng.zh@ccb.com審核格根021-60637055gegen.zh@ccb.com3/37目錄原油.................................................................................................................................................................5一、走勢回顧：供
3、給變動主導，油價呈V型走勢.....................................................................................5二、影響因素分析：關注重點從去產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)向頁巖油產(chǎn)量.........................................................................6三、后市展望：供給調(diào)整仍是關鍵，預計油價中樞上移................................................................
4、.......11鋼鐵...............................................................................................................................................................13一、市場回顧：全年鋼鐵市場寬幅震蕩................................................................................................
5、...13二、影響因素分析：行業(yè)政策主導短期預期...........................................................................................14三、2018年展望：行情邏輯切換，重點關注行業(yè)供求..........................................................................22銅..................................................................
6、.....................................................................................................24一、市場回顧：供給收縮強于預期，銅價震蕩后大幅上行...................................................................24二、銅供給意外收縮...............................................................................
7、....................................................25三、需求低速持穩(wěn).......................................................................................................................................26四、交易所庫存結(jié)構(gòu)大調(diào)整..........................................................................
8、.....
