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1、鄭州大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文電力系統(tǒng)短期負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法的研究姓名：張德玲申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：電力系統(tǒng)及其自動(dòng)化導(dǎo)教師：陳根永20070515鄭州人學(xué)丁.學(xué)《1.?論文AbstractShort-TermLoadForecasting{STLF)isoneofthemostimportantcontentsofrunninganddispatchingofpowersystem.ItcanbeeconomicandreasonabletoarrangestartandstopoftheGeneratorinwirenet,reduceotioserevolvethe
2、storagecapacity.ItcanbereasonabletoarrangeGeneratorthemaintainplan,assurancenormalproduceandliveofsociety,raisetheeconomicefficiencyandsocialefficiencyofElectricpowerenterprise；Underthesituationthattheenergyisincreasinglylackingcurrently,thenationalenergydevelopmentstrategyrequests
3、graduallytoreduceenergyconsumptionoftheunitGDP,theproductionandconsumptionofelectricpowerincreasinglygotomaiket,short-termtoadforecastingresultbecomeimportancebasisofdrawinguptheelectricpowermarketbargainplan.Sotheseputshort-termloadforecastingforwardahigherrequest.Thistextanalyzet
4、hepresentconditionandVariousmethodsandmathematicsmodeloftheshort-termloadforecasting.Consideringthefact,thespecificComparisonofthecommercialelectricityandlifeelectricityofresidentsoftherecentyearsismoreandmorebigintheallsocietyelectricity,theseloadsaresubjectedtoinfluencebyloaddayt
5、ypeandweatherandetc;Moreover,theregionloadlevelisn'talltoohighgenerally,andtheloadconstituteissimplegenerally,sotheseloadsarealsoeffectedeasilybytoaddaytypeandweatherfactors.Accordingtosomeareafact’thistexttakesdaytypeandweatherasthemaininfluencefactorsoftheregionshort-termloadfore
6、casting.Becauseofindeterminationcharacteristicofthesomeinfluencefactora,thistexttakesfuzzymethodtoprocessdata.Thenormalcalculatewaycan'treflectgoodlyweatherconditionandotheroutsidefactorstotheinfluenceforloadforecasting,inrecentyears,,theartificialneuralnetworicmethodetchaveheightn
7、onlineartoreflecttheabilityofshoot,canreflectgoodlytheweatherfactoretc.Buttackofthegeneralrulethatinstructmodeltochoosesautomaticallyinthespeed,stabilityandtheoverallsituationtoordersmallestaspectsofstudyingtorefrainingfromrashaction,justspeedtorefrainftomrashactionatsomeextentThis
8、textauthorcombinerelevantt
