風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的n種面孔(n faces of risk)

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時(shí)間:2018-07-30

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1、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的n種面孔(Nfacesofrisk)Normally,therisksthatcanbecontrolledarenotasalarmingastheuncontrollablerisks,eventhoughtheformerismorelikelytooccur.ThetrafficaccidenthappenedinbetweenMilanandVeniceonthefreewayisextremelyhighrisk,butnottofeelfear,becausepeoplecantakecontrolofthesteeringwheel,youdecidetovent

2、uretodrivefast,takelifeajoke.Wetendtoassessriskswithemotions,experiences,numbers,orpersonalpreferences,andreasonisalwaysmarginalized,andtheresultisthatwedon'trecognizerisk.RiskrelativityInthenewspaperIreadeveryday,therewasapagetoletreadersknowmoreaboutscientificknowledge.Oneofthereportsintroduce

3、dthelatestresearchpapersintheworld'smostauthoritativejournals.Peoplewithhighercholesterollevelsare50%morelikelytosufferfromheartdiseasethanpeople,andpeoplewhothinkabouthighcholesterolmustbeveryupsetafterreadingit.Atthispointwemaythink:"whatexactlydoesthisnumberwanttoconvey?""Let'sfirstpresentthe

4、samedatainotherways.Accordingtoforecasts,ageof50peoplewithnormalcholesterollevels,100inevery4peopleinthenext10yearssufferingfrommyocardialinfarction;thesameagebutcholesterolishigh,thereare6peoplesufferfrommyocardialinfarction.Thecorrespondingis"50%"writteninthenewspaper,becausetheincreaseof2peop

5、leishalfof4people,thatis,50%.A4personincreaseof2representsarelativeriskincreaseof50%,butwecanalsorepresentthesamedatainadifferentway-focusingontheimprovementof"absoluterisk".Inthiscase,"absoluterisk"onlyincreasedby2%,thatis,thedifferencebetween6or4peoplein100people.Comparedwith"50%",thenumber"2%

6、"willweakenthepsychologicalshockcausedbythereportonthereaderswithhighcholesterol.Aslongasweunderstandthis,wewillcalmlythinkaboutwhatthenumbersaresaying,ratherthanworryingtoomuch.Foranotherexample,thisisoneofthetopicsweoftentalkaboutinourdailylife."Carbeltatanytime,canreducetheriskof15%."".Youmig

7、htthink,you'realwayswearingyourseatbelt,okay?.Butdoyoureallyknowtheriskofleavingacarinacarcrashfor70yearsinthecaseofwearingaseatbelt?Youdon'tknow.Thisstatementisnotclear,canreducetheriskof"absoluterisk"or"relativerisk"?".Sup

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