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1、CommercialFinanceOutlookFindingOpportunitiesNorthAmericaEquityResearch23July2018WeseesomecompellingopportunitiesintheBDCcategory.Therearevariousheadwinds,includingthelatestageofthecreditcycleandborrower-friendlyunderwritingenvironment.However,webelievetheserisksaregenerallyprice
2、dintoshares.Wealsohighlightthetailwindsofastill-stablemacroeconomicenvironmentandgenerallyhealthycorporateprofitability.Weareestablishingour2019PTsandareupgradingTSLX.·SomeP/NAVmultipleshavereboundedmorethanothers,creatingopportunity.Overthelast12months,someBDCshaveexperienceawid
3、erangeofP/NAVmultiples(seegraphsonpage3).SomeBDCmultipleshavereboundedtolevelsclosetotheirpost-crisishistoricalmultiples,whileothershavenot,whichcreatesrelativeopportunity.WereiterateourpreviousOWratingsonfourBDCsandupgradeTSLXtoOW.·Establishing2019PTs;upgradingTSLX.Ourframeworki
4、sbasedontargetP/NAVmultiplesappliedtoourYE2019NAVestimates.WebelievewehavebakedintoourPTsadegreeofconservatism,asmostofourtargetmultiplesareatorbelowthecompanies’respectivepost-crisisaveragemultiplesandallbuttwoareatadiscounttoNAV.WeareupgradingTSLXtoOW(fromN).TSLXsharespersisten
5、tlytradeaboveNAV,andourtargetmultipleof1.175xistowardsthecenteroftheTTMtradingrange(1.08x–1.34x).·2Q18issuancedrivenbyelevatedM&Aactivity.2Q18wasastrongquarterforleveragedloanissuance,whichtotaled$170Bandmarkeda20%increaseQ/Q(10%increaseY/Y).Issuancewasdrivenbyelevatedrefinancing
6、andacquisitionactivity,eachofwhichaccountedfor~30%ofissuance,followedbyLBOfinancingat20%.Middle-marketissuancetotaled$2.8Bin2Q18(upfrom$2.6Bin1Q18and$2.5Bin2Q17),drivenbyLBOactivity.·Widerspreadslikelytohavemoreimpactinfuturequarters.Spreadsreversedtheirprevioustighteningtrendand
7、widenedduring2Q18,endingtheJunequarteratlevelssimilartothoseofYE2017.Wedonotexpectspreadwideningtohavemuchfundamentalimpactin2Q18results,butcouldimpactthetermsofnewdealsin2H18ifwideningpersists.Specialty&ConsumerFinanceRichardShaneACEquityRatingsandPriceTargetsCompanyTickerMktCa
8、p($mn)Price($)RatCuringPrevPriceTaCurrge
