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1、5January2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchDoubleclickheretoselectasector.SpecialtyFinanceResearchAnalystsANNUALMosheOrenbuch2125386795moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.com2018Outlook:TaxandcapitalreturnJamesUlan2123258235favorable.Positiveonconsumerfinancejames.ulan@credit-suisse.com■W
2、ithin,wearemakingmaterialchangestoourtargetpricesandEPSHoangNguyen2123253357estimatesbutmakenoratingschanges.Also,pleaseseeourSpecialtyhoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comFinance2018Outlookslidepresentation.■CreditCardIssuers:Lend-CentricModelPrevails.Weexpectcardloanstogrow~6%in2017andpriva
3、telabel~1pptfaster.Weexpectcompetitioninrewardsandcobrandspacetocontinuetoremainaggressive.Issuerswhocangrowlendingbalanceswillcontinuetobemostsuccessful;SYFisourtoppick.Risingratesshouldbeatailwindformargins,withtheexceptionofAXP.Strongmacroeconomicsandtaxcutshouldalsobeaplusforconsum
4、ersentimentandhencethecardissuers.■Networks.Webelievethatcontinuedhealthyeconomicbackdropinmajorregionswillpushthenetworkshigherin2018.PotentialreboundincurrencyvolatilityandrecentdepreciationofUSDshouldalsohelpearnings.Furthermore,thecompletionofVisaEuropeintegrationshouldallowbothVan
5、dMAtoraisepricingin2018.WefavorVgivenitsdominantpositionintheU.S.marketaswellasmoreconsistentachievementofoperatingleverage■StudentLending.WebelieveinvestorswillbefocusedontheSenate’sHEAreauthorizationbillaftertheHousereleasedadraftthatwasfavorabletoprivatelenders.Additionally,wearefoc
6、usedoncompetitioninthein-schoollendingspaceasnewlendersenterorplantoenterthein-schoolmarket.OurfavoritenameremainsSallieMaeduetooperatingleverage,solidcredit,andgoodoriginations.■AutoLending.OurfavoritenameisSCasweexpect’18and’19EPStobenefitfromstrongcapitalreturn.Asasub-sector,autolen
7、dersarelikelytofacesomechallenges,specifically,flattishSAAR,increasingoff-leasevolume,andlessmix-shiftbenefittowardsSUVs/trucksawayfromcars.Sofarwehaveseenbankspullbackfromprimeandnear-primelendingbutcompetitionhasremainedfierceinsubprimelending,withnosignsofabatingmaterially■Non-pri