j.p, 摩根-美股-金融業(yè)-特種金融2018年展望:偏好稅收與資本回報,看好消費金融

j.p, 摩根-美股-金融業(yè)-特種金融2018年展望:偏好稅收與資本回報,看好消費金融

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j.p, 摩根-美股-金融業(yè)-特種金融2018年展望:偏好稅收與資本回報,看好消費金融_第1頁
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1、5January2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchDoubleclickheretoselectasector.SpecialtyFinanceResearchAnalystsANNUALMosheOrenbuch2125386795moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.com2018Outlook:TaxandcapitalreturnJamesUlan2123258235favorable.Positiveonconsumerfinancejames.ulan@credit-suisse.com■W

2、ithin,wearemakingmaterialchangestoourtargetpricesandEPSHoangNguyen2123253357estimatesbutmakenoratingschanges.Also,pleaseseeourSpecialtyhoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comFinance2018Outlookslidepresentation.■CreditCardIssuers:Lend-CentricModelPrevails.Weexpectcardloanstogrow~6%in2017andpriva

3、telabel~1pptfaster.Weexpectcompetitioninrewardsandcobrandspacetocontinuetoremainaggressive.Issuerswhocangrowlendingbalanceswillcontinuetobemostsuccessful;SYFisourtoppick.Risingratesshouldbeatailwindformargins,withtheexceptionofAXP.Strongmacroeconomicsandtaxcutshouldalsobeaplusforconsum

4、ersentimentandhencethecardissuers.■Networks.Webelievethatcontinuedhealthyeconomicbackdropinmajorregionswillpushthenetworkshigherin2018.PotentialreboundincurrencyvolatilityandrecentdepreciationofUSDshouldalsohelpearnings.Furthermore,thecompletionofVisaEuropeintegrationshouldallowbothVan

5、dMAtoraisepricingin2018.WefavorVgivenitsdominantpositionintheU.S.marketaswellasmoreconsistentachievementofoperatingleverage■StudentLending.WebelieveinvestorswillbefocusedontheSenate’sHEAreauthorizationbillaftertheHousereleasedadraftthatwasfavorabletoprivatelenders.Additionally,wearefoc

6、usedoncompetitioninthein-schoollendingspaceasnewlendersenterorplantoenterthein-schoolmarket.OurfavoritenameremainsSallieMaeduetooperatingleverage,solidcredit,andgoodoriginations.■AutoLending.OurfavoritenameisSCasweexpect’18and’19EPStobenefitfromstrongcapitalreturn.Asasub-sector,autolen

7、dersarelikelytofacesomechallenges,specifically,flattishSAAR,increasingoff-leasevolume,andlessmix-shiftbenefittowardsSUVs/trucksawayfromcars.Sofarwehaveseenbankspullbackfromprimeandnear-primelendingbutcompetitionhasremainedfierceinsubprimelending,withnosignsofabatingmaterially■Non-pri

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