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《中國(guó)-航空業(yè)-中國(guó)航空業(yè)：燃料價(jià)格與外匯波動(dòng)的影 響被夸大了？》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫(kù)。
1、ABGlobalResearch10October2018ChineseAirlineSectorEquitiesChinaAirlinesEricLinAnalysteric-p.lin@ubs.com+852-37123640HerbertLUAnalystS1460517110002herbert.lu@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668873QianYuAssociateqian.yu@ubssecurities.com+86-213-8668684IstheimpactoffuelpricesandFXoverstat
2、ed?Toomuchconcernonoil/FX;favourablesupply/demanddynamicsnotpricedinWeinitiatecoverageofChineseairlines'AshareswithapositiveviewandmaintainourBuyratingsontheirHshares.Weexpect:1)balanceddemand/supplygrowthin2018,followedbydemandgrowthmarginallyexceedingsupply;2)theairlinestooffs
3、etmostincrementalfuelcostsondomesticroutesviafuelsurcharges;and3)diminishingFXimpact,givenreducedexposuretotheUS$.WebelievetheA-shares'P/BVandEV/EBITDARaretrading1SDbelowhistoricalaverageduetorisingfuelpriceandrenminbidepreciation.However,wethinkthemarketshouldshiftitsattentiont
4、omorefundamentalfactors:favourablesupply/demandconditions.WeinitiatecoverageofSpringAirlinesandChinaEasternAirlines-AwithBuy,andAirChina-AwithNeutral.(RefertocompanypagesoftheUBS-SA-shareinitiationofcoveragereportfordetails.)Improvementinsupply/demandinChinawiththeliftingofthepr
5、iceceilingWeexpectindustrydemand/supplytoberelativelybalanced(9.4%/9.5%YoYgrowth)in2018,withdemandgrowthexceedingsupplygrowthin2019-20,andpotentialyieldupsidefrombettersupply/demandandraisingthepriceceilingontrunkroutes.CEA,AirChinaandSpringraisedticketpriceson26,18,10domesticro
6、utes,respectively,inH118,andtheirmanagementallguidedanoptimisticyieldoutlookforH218.TheUBSEvidenceLabDataScienceChinaairlinerevenuepredictivemodelsuggeststheindustrycanstillmaintainpositiverevenuegrowthwithoutayieldhike.MarketoverreactingtorisingfuelpriceandcurrencydepreciationW
7、eexpectanegativeimpactforChineseairlinesfromrisingoilpricesandrenminbidepreciation.But,webelievemostofthejetfuelpricehikecanbeoffsetbyfuelsurchargesandtheFXimpactisdiminishing,givendecreasingexposuretoUSdollar-denominateddebt,andmostFXimpactisaone-offnon-cashloss.Oursensitivitya
8、nalysisofthe2017baseshowstherewasonlya1-2%decli
