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1、cGlobalResearch10October2018InitiationofCoverageEquitiesChinaAirlinesChineseAirlineSector–AIstheimpactoffuelpricesandFXoverstated?Toomuchconcernonoil/FX;favourablesupply/demanddynamicsnotpricedinWeinitiatecoverageofChineseairlines'Ashareswithapositiveview.Weexpect:1)balan
2、ceddemand/supplygrowthin2018,followedbydemandgrowthmarginallyexceedingsupply;2)theairlinestooffsetmostincrementalfuelcostsondomesticroutesviafuelsurcharges;and3)diminishingFXimpact,givenreducedexposuretotheUSdollar.TheChineseairlineA-shares'P/BVandEV/EBITDARmultiplesaretr
3、ading1SDbelowthehistoricalaveragedue,inourview,toarisingfuelpriceandrenminbidepreciation.However,wethinkthemarketshouldshiftitsattentiontothefundamentalfactor:favourablesupply/demandconditions.WeinitiatecoverageofSpringAirlines(Spring)andChinaEasternAirlines-A(CEA-A)withB
4、uyratings,andAirChina-AwithaNeutralrating.Improvementinsupply/demandinChinawiththeliftingofthepriceceilingWeexpectindustrydemand/supplytoberelativelybalanced(9.4%/9.5%YoYgrowth)in2018,withdemandgrowthexceedingsupplygrowthin2019-20,andpotentialyieldupsidefrombettersupply/d
5、emandandraisingthepriceceilingontrunkroutes.CEA,AirChinaandSpringraisedticketpriceson26,18,10domesticroutes,respectively,inH118,andtheirmanagementallguidedanoptimisticyieldoutlookforH218.TheUBSEvidenceLabDataScienceChinaairlinerevenuepredictivemodelsuggeststheindustrycans
6、tillmaintainpositiverevenuegrowthwithoutayieldhike.MarketoverreactingtorisingfuelpriceandcurrencydepreciationWeexpectanegativeimpactforChineseairlinesfromrisingoilpricesandrenminbidepreciation.But,webelievemostofthejetfuelpricehikecanbeoffsetbyfuelsurchargesandtheFXimpact
7、isdiminishing,givendecreasingexposuretoUSdollar-denominateddebt,andmostFXimpactisaone-offnon-cashloss.Oursensitivityanalysisofthe2017baseshowstherewasonlya1-2%declineinearningsoneveryUS$1/bblincreaseinthejetfuelpriceaftercollectingfuelsurcharge.WeestimatetheFXimpactwasa5-
8、6%declineinthebottomlineonevery1%depreciationoftherenminbi,over80%oftheimpactwasnon-cashFXloss.I
