資源描述：
《2019年交易量預期》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、ABGlobalResearch9October2018UBSEvidenceLab:RigsillowEnergyAmericasEquitiesLookingAheadto2019VolumeExpectationsUBSEvidenceLabRigModel–LookingAheadto2019VolumeExpectationsRigcountgrowthslowedin3Qto+1.2%afterconsecutivestrong1Qand2Qof+7.5%,+5.0%,respectively,i
2、mplyingslowinggrowthinto1Q19.RigsillowidentifiedWES,TRGP&DCPasthoseseeingthemostgrowtharoundtheirassetsfollowedbyCEQP.EIAexpects3Q18crudeandnatgasprodtoincrease4.6%/4.9%QoQ.Wecontinuetoexpectstronggrowthin2H18,followingthestrongmacrosupportweidentifiedinour
3、previousRigsillow(clickhere);however,prodgrowthshouldbegintotaperinto'19,potentiallyduetoinfratightnessacrossmidstream.Interestingly,BenteknotedthatrigcountformostPermianoperatorshasbeenflatoverthepast6monthsexceptforXOM,CXO,PXD,APA,andCVX.WenoteTRGPshouldb
4、enefitduetocontractswithCXO,PXD,andCVX.During3Qcalls,wewilllistenforcadenceinto'19volguidanceasaslowingrigcountcouldimplyslowinggrowthinthePermian,Mid-Con,Bakkenuntilnewpipelinecapacitycomesonline.Thatsaid,rigcountintheEagleFordisupQOQasthereisstillunderuti
5、lizedinfrastructureintheregion.InterestingTrendsinTopBasins:thePermian3Q18oilrigcountinthePermianbasinincreased13rigsQoQasthehighestproducingbasincontinuestogrow.Per2Q18earningscalls,anumberofPermianproducersdiscussedtemporarilyreallocatingresourcesoutsidet
6、hePermianduetoinfrastructureconstraints.However,accordingtoBentek,rigcountsfromsometopPermianproducerscontinuetotrendupastheyhavecommitmentswithmidstreamoperators,whilesmallerproducerswithoutcommitmentsareforcedtocurtaildrilling.(seep5).CloserLookat4Q18/1Q1
7、9VolumeGuidanceCommentaryWelookedattheQoQchangein3Q18rigcountand2Q18gasthroughputinordertodeterminewhichcompanieswilllikelyguideto4Q18/1Q19volumesduetoaslowingrigcount.BasedontheUBSEvidenceLabgeospatialRigModelandouranalysisWES,TRGPandDCPcouldprovidepositiv
8、eguidancecommentaryduring3Q18.InourreportfromJuly,wehighlightedthatEPD,TRGPandCEQPcouldprovidethepositivecommentaryfor2H18.WESwasaddedtothelistasMentoneIwascompletedin3Q18andislocatedinthecoreoftheDela
