基于copula模型的碳金融市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融合度量

基于copula模型的碳金融市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融合度量

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時(shí)間:2019-01-31

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1、TheIntegratedMeasurementBasedontheCopulaModelabouttheMarketRiskofCarbonFinanceABSTRACTWiththepopularityoflow-carboneconomyandtherapiddevelopmentofthecarbonemissiontradingmarket,carbonfinanceisbecominganimportantstrategicchoicefornationalsustainabledevelopmentallovertheworld.Thecarbonfinance,whi

2、chserversforthecarbonemissiontrade,impliesatremendousbusinessopportunities.Inconsiderationofthepotentialbusinessopportunitiesandtherequirementforenterprisestopracticesocialresponsibilities,financialinstitutionsrepresentedbycommercialbanksgraduallyinvolveinthefieldofcarbonfinance.Whentherearewil

3、dfluctuationsinthecarbonfinancialmarket,theriskwouldcome.Forfinancialinstitutions,thesemarketriskfactorssuchasthefluctuantpriceriskofcarbonandtheexchangerateriskduringtransactionsettlementcannotbeoverlooked.First,thispaperdeterminestworiskfactorsaboutthemarketriskofcarbonfinance:thefluctuantpri

4、ceriskofcarbonandtheexchangeraterisk.Then,theauthorusestheARMA—GARCHmodeltodepictthemarginaldistributionofsequenceofthefiuctuantpriceriskofcarbonandthereturnrateoftheexchangeraterisk.ByconstructingthemarginaldistributionoftheARMA-GARCH,thestandardizedresidualssequenceofthefluctuantpriceriskofca

5、rbonandthereturnrateoftheexchangerateriskcanbeobtained.WiththeadoptionofCopula,theauthorbuildstherelevantmodelofCopula—-ARMA··GARCHaccordingtothestandardizedresidualssequence,andthenchoosestheoptimalfittingCopulatoestablishtheintegratedmarketrisksofthefluctuantpriceofcarbonandexchangerate.Final

6、ly,makinguseofMonteCarloAnalog,theauthorcalculatestheriskvalueVaRoftheintegratedmarketrisksofcarbonfinance.Andonthisbasis,anempiricalstudyisalsodone.Accordingtotheempiricalstudy,themainresultsareasfollows:First,iftheactualrelevancyofdifferentmarketriskfactorsisnotconsidered,theintegratedmarketr

7、iskofcarbonfinancewillbeoverestimated.Second,withthesamedegreeofconfidence,thereisadirectproportionrelationshipbetweentheintegratedvalueofmarketriskandtheriskassetsratioofcarbonprice.Lastbutnotleast,withthesameamountofassets,thepo

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