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1、TheIntegratedMeasurementBasedontheCopulaModelabouttheMarketRiskofCarbonFinanceABSTRACTWiththepopularityoflow-carboneconomyandtherapiddevelopmentofthecarbonemissiontradingmarket,carbonfinanceisbecominganimportantstrategicchoicefornationalsustainabledevelopmentallovertheworld.Thecarbonfinance,whi
2、chserversforthecarbonemissiontrade,impliesatremendousbusinessopportunities.Inconsiderationofthepotentialbusinessopportunitiesandtherequirementforenterprisestopracticesocialresponsibilities,financialinstitutionsrepresentedbycommercialbanksgraduallyinvolveinthefieldofcarbonfinance.Whentherearewil
3、dfluctuationsinthecarbonfinancialmarket,theriskwouldcome.Forfinancialinstitutions,thesemarketriskfactorssuchasthefluctuantpriceriskofcarbonandtheexchangerateriskduringtransactionsettlementcannotbeoverlooked.First,thispaperdeterminestworiskfactorsaboutthemarketriskofcarbonfinance:thefluctuantpri
4、ceriskofcarbonandtheexchangeraterisk.Then,theauthorusestheARMA—GARCHmodeltodepictthemarginaldistributionofsequenceofthefiuctuantpriceriskofcarbonandthereturnrateoftheexchangeraterisk.ByconstructingthemarginaldistributionoftheARMA-GARCH,thestandardizedresidualssequenceofthefluctuantpriceriskofca
5、rbonandthereturnrateoftheexchangerateriskcanbeobtained.WiththeadoptionofCopula,theauthorbuildstherelevantmodelofCopula—-ARMA··GARCHaccordingtothestandardizedresidualssequence,andthenchoosestheoptimalfittingCopulatoestablishtheintegratedmarketrisksofthefluctuantpriceofcarbonandexchangerate.Final
6、ly,makinguseofMonteCarloAnalog,theauthorcalculatestheriskvalueVaRoftheintegratedmarketrisksofcarbonfinance.Andonthisbasis,anempiricalstudyisalsodone.Accordingtotheempiricalstudy,themainresultsareasfollows:First,iftheactualrelevancyofdifferentmarketriskfactorsisnotconsidered,theintegratedmarketr
7、iskofcarbonfinancewillbeoverestimated.Second,withthesamedegreeofconfidence,thereisadirectproportionrelationshipbetweentheintegratedvalueofmarketriskandtheriskassetsratioofcarbonprice.Lastbutnotleast,withthesameamountofassets,thepo