資源描述：
《京津客運(yùn)專線短期客流預(yù)測(cè)研究》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、北京交通大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文京津客運(yùn)專線短期客流預(yù)測(cè)研究姓名：何靜申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：交通運(yùn)輸規(guī)劃與管理指導(dǎo)教師：楊浩20061201北京覽通大攀碩士擎位論文中文摘要攘要：客運(yùn)專線的緞搬客霧籠預(yù)測(cè)秘究較少，瑗存鮑磺突多以孛長(zhǎng)聯(lián)豹預(yù)測(cè)方法為主，不能做到對(duì)旅客需求精細(xì)預(yù)涮的要求。論文分析了京津客運(yùn)專線所處環(huán)境幫旅客運(yùn)輸需求靜特煮及供絳待凝，對(duì)于竅運(yùn)專線煞矮耀客滾該濺串戇難纛誘增逕量，引入經(jīng)濟(jì)引力和經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力因豢，所構(gòu)建的改進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)誘增效果預(yù)測(cè)模型，與常用的彈性系數(shù)、需求麴線頸測(cè)等方法褶援：，其裔原始數(shù)據(jù)采集方便、易
2、操作、可移植等優(yōu)點(diǎn)。對(duì)于趨勢(shì)運(yùn)量，采用比四階段法更為精細(xì)的非集計(jì)模型求解分擔(dān)率，在求出旅客效用函數(shù)的同時(shí)也可得到旅窖的時(shí)間價(jià)值，進(jìn)而可以研究時(shí)間價(jià)筐彝客流交化的穗關(guān)翊題。論文磺究選擇了黢合數(shù)攆(JointSP&羚)弱模型鑲量}方法，較好的克服了單獨(dú)選用SP數(shù)據(jù)戚I瀠數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行集計(jì)的缺點(diǎn)，將調(diào)查得到的旅客數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)蔣集謗模鍪豹參數(shù)逡行話謗，并麓麓磁法修蘢，效采滋只采耀豁數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)精度要高，誤差更小。論文根據(jù)客運(yùn)專線在不同的運(yùn)鶩速度下與其他交邋方式的市場(chǎng)分摳率和相應(yīng)豹旅客辯聞價(jià)僚，計(jì)簿得到了預(yù)測(cè)年度京津客運(yùn)專線的趨勢(shì)運(yùn)
3、爨、轉(zhuǎn)移運(yùn)量和誘增運(yùn)量，并通過季節(jié)因子和趨勢(shì)因素測(cè)算出預(yù)測(cè)車度內(nèi)各月度的預(yù)測(cè)運(yùn)量。上述研究，為京津客運(yùn)專線的運(yùn)輸組織鍵供了科學(xué)的依據(jù)。關(guān)鍵詞：非榘計(jì)模翟；短期客流預(yù)測(cè)；京津客運(yùn)專線；sP數(shù)據(jù)和RP數(shù)據(jù){分擔(dān)率；分類號(hào)：U293．13蕊京交避大學(xué)疆±孥鏈論文A器STRACTA8S聰(了rAB簧娃“LC秘Researchonthepassengerflowpredictionmainlyconcentrateonmediumandlongtermpredictioninthecurrent,lessinvolv
4、edshorttermpredictionfordelieateddemand．諏dissertadonanalyzestheFassengerIravddemaadaswell3ssupplyandtheenvirortment,takingeconomicgravitationandpotentialfactorintoaccount,thenpredictstheinducedtrafficwithimprovedeconomicinducedmodel．朝囂originaldataareeasily
5、gatheredandthemethodismoreconvenienttooperateandtransplantcomparedtotheelasticcoefficientanddemandcln'vemethod．Forthetrendtransport,thedissel重盆ttionmakes黼ofdisaggregatemodelwhichismoredelieatedthanthefour-phasemethodforthedistributionrateofpassengerflow,an
6、dthenattainsthepassenger確ii鑼functionandpassengertimevaluewhichcallexploretheirrelationshipbetweentimevalueandflowfluctuation。nlcdissertationselectstheiointSP＆RPmethodfromtheestim．a(chǎn)temethods協(xié)ovet∞methedisadvantageswhichseparatelyusesSPOr黏datamayleadto．After
7、themodelestimationand涮revisemethod,thepapergainslnoropreciousresultsandless踺uaredelTOt"thantheSPway．Accordingtotheresultofdistn'butionmteofpassengerflowandtimevalue．thedissertationfiguresoutthetrendtransporttransfertransportanditflmedtratlsporttogetherwith
8、markets嫩ofeachtrafficmodeunder灑erentvelocityofBeijing-TianjinPassengeronlyline．Meanwhileitobtainsmonthdemandpredietionintargetyearsbymensurationofse粼onalterationfactorandtrendfactonTherefore，theresearchprovid
