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《我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系的協(xié)整分析及實(shí)證研究》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫(kù)。
1、一爹天洋大謦碩士學(xué)位論文學(xué)科專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程作者姓名：I、軍峰指導(dǎo)教師：馬壽峰教授夭湟大學(xué)研究生院2005年1月ABSTRACTTherelationshipsbetweentransportationandeconomyinChinaareanalysedfromthesupplyandthedemandinthispaperusingtheconceptsofcointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodel(ECM)．Thesupplyincludesmileageoftransportroutes．Thedemandincludesnumbersofmoto
2、rvehicles，demandsofpassengerandfreighttransport．Applyingcointegrationtotherelationshipbetweenmileagesoftransportroutesandeconomy,wefundthatmileagesofhighwayshaveacointegrationrelationship謝tlltheeconomy,butthisrelationshipdoesn’tgoforthemileagesofrailwaysandeconomy．Fornumbersofmotorvehicles，bothpass
3、engervehiclesandtruckshaveacointegrationrelationshipwiththeeconomy．Tofreighttransport，allECMisconstructedbasedonintegration,whichdescribestheadjustmentprocessofthetonne—kilometertothelong-runequilibrium．Theresultssuggestthatallparametersestimatedareoftheexpectedsignandthattheuniquelong-runrelations
4、hipexitsamongthetonne-kilometer,theindexoftheindustrialproductionandtheprice．Theindustrialproductionisthemainfactorofinfluencingthefreighttransportwhichisexpectedtogrowatthesarflespeedaccordingtotheindustry．Thefreightperformancesarerelativelyinelastictopricechangestoo．TheECMnotonlyfitstheactualwell
5、，butalsomaintainsoverallatability．Astothepassengertransport,anECMisconstructedbasedonintegration．ThentherecursiveOLSalongwimChowtestisusedtoanalyzeitsstages．Theresultssuggestthattheuniquelong—runrelationshipexitsamongthepassenger-kilometers，GDP,theratioofurbanpopulationtototalpopulationandprice．Eco
6、nomyandpopulationplayanimportantroleinthepassengerperformances．Thepassengerperformancesarerelativelyinelastictopricechanges．Intheshort-run，thefactorseffectingonthedemandsofthepassengertransporthavechangedremarkablysince1990andtheECMofdifferentagesgivemoreclearexplanationofthechange．KEYWORDS：cointeg
7、ration，errorcorrectionmodel，mileagesoftransportroutes，numbersofmotorvehicles，demandsofpassengertransport，demandsoffreighttransport獨(dú)創(chuàng)性聲明本人聲明所呈交的學(xué)位論文是本人在導(dǎo)師指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的研究工作和取得的研究成果，除了文中特別加以標(biāo)注和致謝之處外，論文中不包含其他人已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫過(guò)
