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1、HAZARDSANDPRECAUTIONS:TALESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCEGaryClydeHufbauerandErikaWadaInstituteforInternationalEconomicsSeptember1999InthewakeoffinancialcrisesinMexico(1994-95),Asia(1997-98),Russia(1998)andBrazil(1998-99),respectedobservershavequestionedthebenefitsofwide-openinternationalcapitalmarke
2、ts(Bhagwati,1998;Krugman,1998;Rodrik,1998;Eichengreen,1999).Ourpurposeistoidentifytruehazardsandsuggestappropriateprecautions.THEBENEFITSOFFINANCIALINNOVATIONInternationalfinancialmagnitudeshaveexpandedfarmorerapidlyoverthepasttwentyyearsthaninternationalmerchandisetrade(seethecomparisonsinTa
3、ble1).Moreover,financialcriseshavebeenfrequent(byhistoricalstandards)duringthesetwodecades.Ontheotherhand,financialinnovationranksamongthefoundationsofstrongeconomicperformance,alongsidehighsavings,disciplinedbudgets,lowinflation,goodeducation,andinformationtechnology.Countriesdifferenormousl
4、yintheirdegreeoffinancialmaturity.Atoneextreme,incountriesatalowstageoffinancialdevelopment,banksdominatethefinancialsystemandeachbanklendsmostofitsfundstorelatedbusinessfirms.Thestockandbondmarketsaresmall,futuresandoptionsmarketsdonotexist,privatemutualfundsandpensionfundsaretiny,securitize
5、dmortgagesandequipmentleasingareunknown,andconceptofamarketforcorporatecontrol(throughhostilemergersandacquisitions)seemsalien.Inthesesettings,itisnosurprisethatscarcecapitalispoorlyallocated,whilebankspaylowornegativerealratesofinteresttohouseholds.Attheotherextreme,incountrieswithmaturefina
6、ncialsystems,the“missing”financialmarketsarewellestablished.Capitalisallocatedmoreefficientlybetweencompetingusesandhouseholdsearnbetterreturnsontheirsavings.Asimpleexampleillustratesthevalueofefficientcapitalmarkets.IfcountryAhasnetannualsavingsequalto20percentofGDP,andfinancialintermediarie
7、sallocatethosesavingssoGaryHufbaueristheReginaldJonesSeniorFellowandErikaWadaisaResearchAssociateattheInstitute.thatthereturnoncapitalis5percentonaverage,capitalformationwillcontribute1.0percentannuallytonationalgrowth(20percenttimes5percente
