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1、HAZARDSANDPRECAUTIONS:TALESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCEGaryClydeHufbauerandErikaWadaInstituteforInternationalEconomicsSeptember1999InthewakeoffinancialcrisesinMexico(1994-95),Asia(1997-98),Russia(1998)andBrazil(1998-99),respectedobservershavequestionedthebenefitsofwi
2、de-openinternationalcapitalmarkets(Bhagwati,1998;Krugman,1998;Rodrik,1998;Eichengreen,1999).Ourpurposeistoidentifytruehazardsandsuggestappropriateprecautions.THEBENEFITSOFFINANCIALINNOVATIONInternationalfinancialmagnitudeshaveexpandedfarmorerapidlyoverthepasttw
3、entyyearsthaninternationalmerchandisetrade(seethecomparisonsinTable1).Moreover,financialcriseshavebeenfrequent(byhistoricalstandards)duringthesetwodecades.Ontheotherhand,financialinnovationranksamongthefoundationsofstrongeconomicperformance,alongsidehighsavings
4、,disciplinedbudgets,lowinflation,goodeducation,andinformationtechnology.Countriesdifferenormouslyintheirdegreeoffinancialmaturity.Atoneextreme,incountriesatalowstageoffinancialdevelopment,banksdominatethefinancialsystemandeachbanklendsmostofitsfundstorelatedbus
5、inessfirms.Thestockandbondmarketsaresmall,futuresandoptionsmarketsdonotexist,privatemutualfundsandpensionfundsaretiny,securitizedmortgagesandequipmentleasingareunknown,andconceptofamarketforcorporatecontrol(throughhostilemergersandacquisitions)seemsalien.Inthes
6、esettings,itisnosurprisethatscarcecapitalispoorlyallocated,whilebankspaylowornegativerealratesofinteresttohouseholds.Attheotherextreme,incountrieswithmaturefinancialsystems,the“missing”financialmarketsarewellestablished.Capitalisallocatedmoreefficientlybetweenc
7、ompetingusesandhouseholdsearnbetterreturnsontheirsavings.Asimpleexampleillustratesthevalueofefficientcapitalmarkets.IfcountryAhasnetannualsavingsequalto20percentofGDP,andfinancialintermediariesallocatethosesavingssoGaryHufbaueristheReginaldJonesSeniorFellowandE
8、rikaWadaisaResearchAssociateattheInstitute.thatthereturnoncapitalis5percentonaverage,capitalformationwillcontribute1.0percentannuallytonationalgrowth(20percenttimes5percente
