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1、HAZARDSANDPRECAUTIONS:TALESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCEGaryClydeHufbauerandErikaWadaInstituteforInternationalEconomicsSeptember1999InthewakeoffinancialcrisesinMexico(1994-95),Asia(1997-98),Russia(1998)andBrazil(1998-99),respectedobservershavequestionedthebenefitsofwide-openinternationalcapitalmarkets
2、(Bhagwati,1998;Krugman,1998;Rodrik,1998;Eichengreen,1999).Ourpurposeistoidentifytruehazardsandsuggestappropriateprecautions.THEBENEFITSOFFINANCIALINNOVATIONInternationalfinancialmagnitudeshaveexpandedfarmorerapidlyoverthepasttwentyyearsthaninternationalmerchandisetrade(seethecomparisonsinTable1
3、).Moreover,financialcriseshavebeenfrequent(byhistoricalstandards)duringthesetwodecades.Ontheotherhand,financialinnovationranksamongthefoundationsofstrongeconomicperformance,alongsidehighsavings,disciplinedbudgets,lowinflation,goodeducation,andinformationtechnology.Countriesdifferenormouslyinthe
4、irdegreeoffinancialmaturity.Atoneextreme,incountriesatalowstageoffinancialdevelopment,banksdominatethefinancialsystemandeachbanklendsmostofitsfundstorelatedbusinessfirms.Thestockandbondmarketsaresmall,futuresandoptionsmarketsdonotexist,privatemutualfundsandpensionfundsaretiny,securitizedmortgag
5、esandequipmentleasingareunknown,andconceptofamarketforcorporatecontrol(throughhostilemergersandacquisitions)seemsalien.Inthesesettings,itisnosurprisethatscarcecapitalispoorlyallocated,whilebankspaylowornegativerealratesofinteresttohouseholds.Attheotherextreme,incountrieswithmaturefinancialsyste
6、ms,the“missing”financialmarketsarewellestablished.Capitalisallocatedmoreefficientlybetweencompetingusesandhouseholdsearnbetterreturnsontheirsavings.Asimpleexampleillustratesthevalueofefficientcapitalmarkets.IfcountryAhasnetannualsavingsequalto20percentofGDP,andfinancialintermediariesallocatetho
7、sesavingssoGaryHufbaueristheReginaldJonesSeniorFellowandErikaWadaisaResearchAssociateattheInstitute.thatthereturnoncapitalis5percentonaverage,capitalformationwillcontribute1.0percentannuallytonationalgrowth(20percenttimes5percente
