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1、44、Wedges,FallingRESULTSSNAPSHOTAppearanceAdownwardpricetrendboundedbytwointersecting,down-slopingtrendlines.ReversalOrConsolidationShort-term(upto3months)bullishconsolidationFailureRate10%FailureRateifwaitedforbreakout2%AverageRise43%,withmostlikelyri
2、sebetween20%and30%VolumeTrendDownwardPrematureBreakout27%Throwbacks47%Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget88%SurprisingFindingThemostpowerfulbreakoutsoccurbetween50%and80%ofthedistancetotheapex(centeredaround65%).SeealsoPennantsTherearenooutstandingsu
3、rprisesamongthestatisticsshownintheResultsSnapshot.Thefailurerateforfallingwedgesislowat10%.Thislowfailurerate,coupledwithanaverageriseof43%andalikelyriseofbetween20%and30%,suggestsitisaprofitableformationtotrade.However,itisalsoquiterare.Thepercentage
4、offallingwedgesmeetingthepredictedpricetarget,at88%,isveryhighbutthenthebenchmarkiseasy.Pricesneedonlyriseabovethetopoftheformationtohitthetarget.Mystatisticsshowthemostpowerfulbreakoutsoccurat50%to80%ofthedistancetotheapex(thecenterofthisrangebeingtwo
5、-thirdsofthewaytotheapex).Bypowerful,Imeanthatstocksfallingwithintherangeshowlargergains,onaverage.數(shù)據(jù)快照里沒有什么令人驚異的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。失敗率只有10%。如此低的失敗率，而平均漲幅達到43%(最可能是20%到30%)，下降楔形是一個可獲利的交易形態(tài)。然而，它又很少出現(xiàn)。？？？。TourFigure44.1showsafallingwedge.PricesbegandeclininginJanuary1
6、992fromahighof75Ktothewedgestartat52'/4.Pricesrecoveredsomewhat—aretraceinadowntrend—roundedoverandheadedlower.PricestaggedanewlowinlateJulyandbouncedupwardagain.Thistime,theupwardmomentumdidnotcarryquiteasfarasbefore.Anotherupanddownoscillationoccurre
7、dduringmid-Augustjustbeforepricesfinallyreachedanewlow.Ifyoudrawatrendlinealongthebottomoftheminorlowsandanotheralongthetops,youseethefamiliarshapeofafallingwedge.Fallingwedgesarerareformationsthathavepricemovementsboundedbytwodown-slopingtrendlines.Wh
8、endrawnonthechart,thepicturelookslikeawedgetilteddownward.圖44.1展示了一個下降楔形。1992年1月開始，價格從75K起開始下降。到521/4時價格開始反彈-下降趨勢中的反彈-反彈上去形成略低的頭部。價格在七月底創(chuàng)新低之后反彈回去。這次，上行運動沒有上次持久。八月中旬，再次上下的波動價格最終創(chuàng)出新低。分別繪出高點和低點的連線，可以看到一個熟悉的下降楔形。下降楔形是個少見的形態(tài)，價格運動在兩條下行趨勢線之間往復
