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1、中國(guó)油脂油料市場(chǎng)分析及交易機(jī)會(huì)0地形圖1年降雨量2人口密度3內(nèi)容中國(guó)糧油作物產(chǎn)量及供應(yīng)前景中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與食品需求增長(zhǎng)中國(guó)大豆菜籽壓榨產(chǎn)業(yè)概況中國(guó)植物油供需狀況及未來(lái)趨勢(shì)中國(guó)植物油市場(chǎng)格局介紹未來(lái)市場(chǎng)展望及交易機(jī)會(huì)分析4若僅依賴現(xiàn)有的可耕地面積和水資源,中國(guó)要支撐起現(xiàn)有人口將更困難AE183_China2020_Final_Deck_November20105ArableLandcriticallevel(1,800BillionMu)*Sources:MinistryoflandandresourcesofChin
2、aandChina’sministryofwaterresources中國(guó)可耕地面積人均水資源(2009m3)*1.8BillionMucriticalleveldefinedbythegovernmentastheminimumamountofarablelandrequiredtofeedpopulationcomfortably.1hectare=15Mu中國(guó)谷物及油籽產(chǎn)量1,000MT;1,000HA200620072008200920102011YoYAcreageMayEst.MayPre.%Corn2
3、846329478298643118332500331502.00Wheat236132372123617242912432024250-0.29Paddy2893828919292412962729827300700.81Soybean930487549127919088008200-6.82Rapeseed598456426594727873507200-2.04ProductionCorn1516031523001659171639741772501815002.40Wheat1084661092981124
4、561151151151801155000.28Paddy1817181860341918971951031957601976000.94Soybean150821272515545149811520014000-7.89Rapeseed109661057312102136571308212800-2.16穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)的糧食供應(yīng)/持續(xù)減少的油籽供應(yīng)7政策導(dǎo)向土地資源最大化產(chǎn)出國(guó)際供應(yīng)前景內(nèi)容中國(guó)糧油作物產(chǎn)量及供應(yīng)前景中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與食品需求增長(zhǎng)中國(guó)大豆菜籽壓榨產(chǎn)業(yè)概況中國(guó)植物油供需狀況及未來(lái)趨勢(shì)中國(guó)植物油市場(chǎng)格局介紹未來(lái)
5、市場(chǎng)展望及交易機(jī)會(huì)分析8中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)率1978-20149中國(guó)三大經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎:消費(fèi),固定資產(chǎn)投資,出口10中國(guó)的消費(fèi)水平將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),至2020年中國(guó)人均GDP將接近于目前巴西AE183_China2020_Final_Deck_November201011Sources:EconomistIntelligenceUnit,PPPConversionFactors@5%GrowthBrazil(2009)@7%GrowthMalaysia(2009)@9%GrowthArgentina(2009)China2020G
6、DPperCapitavs.Othersin2009(GDPpercapita,nominalinUS$PPP)China(2010)未來(lái)10年,中國(guó)將新增城市化人口2.5億…12Mega(>10million)Big(5million–10million)Midsize(1.5million–5million)Small(0.5million–1.5million)BigTown(<0.5million)641TotalUrbanPopulation(millions)750900By202060%oftheur
7、banpopulationwillliveincitieswithmorethan1.5millionpeople…新增中產(chǎn)階級(jí)和富人階層8600萬(wàn)13UpperAffluent:>200LowerAffluent:100-200MiddleClass:60-100EmergingMiddle:40-60Aspirant:25-40Poor:<25HouseholdAnnualIncome(RMB‘000s)2010UrbanHouseholdIncome(MillionofHouseholds)2020Urba
8、nHouseholdIncome(MillionofHouseholds)86millionadditionalhouseholdsareexpectedtojointhemiddleandlower/upperaffluentclass中國(guó)人均肉類消耗量14中國(guó)蛋白原料和豆粕需求15China’sProteinConsumptionForecast(mi