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1、[table_page]固定收益研究正文目錄1.M2增速低迷：金融去杠桿、地方政府債發(fā)行減少及房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控三重影響...............................41.1.從銀行資金來(lái)源分析M2增速回落............................................................................................................................41.2.從銀行信用創(chuàng)造分析M2增速回落...
2、.........................................................................................................................61.3.未來(lái)M2增速回落空間相對(duì)有限..................................................................................................................
3、............102.為何M2與社融增速背離？...................................................................................................122.1.原因一：社融不包括資金在銀行-非銀金融機(jī)構(gòu)間的流轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)用.............................................................................132.2.原因二：社融與M2對(duì)非
4、標(biāo)、債券融資統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑存在差異...................................................................................132.2.1.信貸：兩者差異不大............................................................................................................................................
5、..............142.2.2.非標(biāo)融資：金融去杠桿對(duì)社融口徑內(nèi)非標(biāo)沖擊較小.......................................................................................................142.2.3.直接融資：地方政府債對(duì)社融替代效應(yīng)減弱................................................................................
6、...................................162.2.4.其它項(xiàng)：資金漏出，未派生形成M2................................................................................................................................173.M2與GDP增速背離：M2指示性下降、經(jīng)濟(jì)金融運(yùn)行對(duì)M2需求減弱...............................
7、.183.1.M2與GDP增速有所背離..........................................................................................................................................183.2.M2作為廣義貨幣的指示性有所下降...........................................................................
8、.............................................183.3.修正之M2對(duì)GDP指示性更強(qiáng)................................................................................................................................193.4.經(jīng)濟(jì)金融運(yùn)行對(duì)M2需求減弱..........
