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1、CapitalFlowstoEmergingMarketsBrighterOutlookJune5,2017?Non-residentcapitalinflowstoEMsareprojectedtoincreasebyUSD252billiontoUSD970billionin2017?WelookforanotablemoderationinresidentoutflowsfromChinathisyear,helpedbyRMBstability?MixedprospectsforFDI,butweseesomeimprovementinbanki
2、ngflowsaswellassolidportfolioflows?South-Southinvestmentmakesupsome5%oftotalcross-borderinvestmentinEMsvs2%adecadeago?KeyriskstoourforecastincludemoreaggressiveFedtightening—includingratehikesandbalancesheetrunoff—thanisbeingpricedinbymarkets.Allelsebeingequal,aUSD500billiondecli
3、neinFedTreasuryholdingswouldbeassociatedwithareductionofoverUSD50billioninEMportfolioflows.?Startingwiththisreport,wehaveadoptedthelatestBPM6presentationforthebalanceofpayments.CLOUDSLIFTINGTableofContentsThefirstmonthsof2017haveseensomepotentialhead-windsforEMcapitalflowsabate.I
4、nparticular,effortsbyExecutivesummary..................................................1ChinesepolicymakerstosupportgrowthandensureRMBAbrighteroutlookforEMcapitalflows..................2stabilityaheadoftheautumnleadershiptransitionshouldMacrobackdrop:mostlysunny..................
5、.............3meanaless-volatilebackdrop.Atthesametime,concernsBox1:South-Southtrade&investmentflows.........5Marketbackdrop:havewehit“PeakEM?”............6abouttheimpactofan“AmericaFirst”orientationofU.S.Box2:EMportfolioflowsbyinvestortype.............8tradepolicyhavesubsided—at
6、leastforthetimebeing—asBox3:FedbalancesheetandEMportfolioflows...9U.S.policymakersfocusonthedomesticagendaincludingChina.........................................................................10healthcareandtaxreform.AssumingongoingimprovementAsia-Six............................
7、.........................................11inglobalandEMgrowthandagradual,well-communicatedEmergingEurope.....................................................12pathofFedtighteningthrough2018,wearenowabitmoreLatinAmerica...........................................................13
8、optimisticonEMcapitalflows.Totalnon-resi
