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1、本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：CapitalFlowstoanEmergingMarketinTurkey出處：InternationalAdvancesinEconomicResearch,2003,Volume9,Number3,Pages189-195作者：SaziyeGazioglu原文：CapitalFlowstoanEmergingMarketinTurkeyAbstractIncreasedgIobalizationinfinancialmarketsimpliesthatthepercentageofallsharesunderf
2、oreignownershipindomesticstockmarketshasbeenrising.SpeculativeattacksontheforeignexchangemarketinFebruary2001ledtodeepeconomiccrisisinTurkey.ThisarticlewillexplorevariousindicatorsofthefinancialcrisisinTurkeybasedonamacro-model.Theforeignshareofthedomesticeconomyisakeyvariabl
3、etoestablishthedegreeofvulnerabilityduringafinancialcrisis.AnempiricalinvestigationshowsthatthepercentageofsharesownedbyforeignersontheIstanbulStockExchange(ISE)hasbeenincreasingsince1995andiscurrentlyabout50percentofthetotal.Furthermore,thegeneralindexofstockmarketpricesin19
4、99wasatitshighestlevelsincei995.Thiswouldimplythatthegeneralpriceindexofthestockmarketisanotherstrongindicatorofanimpendingfinancialcrisis.AnempiricalinvestigationofTurkishdatabasedonatheoreticalmodelispresentedinthispaper.Anunexpectedcapitaloutflowwouldcertainlycauseexchange
5、ratefluctuations,balanceofpaymentsproblems,andinternationaldebtcrisis.Hotmoneyinflowsboostsharepricesandkeeptherealexchangeratehigh.However,short-termstayofcapitalimpliesasuddencapitaloutflowthatcreatesfinancialcrisis,whichresultsininternationaldebtcrisis.Thisinturnleadstoafu
6、rtherincreaseinloansfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).Relativelyhighstockmarketpricesmaysuggestanimpendingfinancialcrisis.UsingTurkishstockmarketpricedata,animpendingfinancialcrisiscanbestatisticallypredicted.(JELE60,F32,F34,F36,F40,G15)IntroductionMuchworkhasbeendoneinth
7、eareaoffinancialcrisis.Johnsonetal.[2000]createdavulnerabilitymatrixusingsetsofcriteriaincludingmacroindicators.Othertheoriesofcrisisincludespeculativeattacks[Krugmanetal.1979],andself-fulfillinghypotheses[Obstfelt,1995].Otherworksincludefundamentals,thesecondgenerationsmodel
8、moralhazard,andself-fulfillingexpectationsmodelsonliquidity.Krugman[
