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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaStrategyDateChinaChinaStrategy25October2017SpotlightStrategyUpdateMichaelTong,CFAJosephHuo3Qfirstread;performance,valuation,ResearchAnalystStrategist(+852)22036167(+852)22036251earningsandliquidityreviewsmichael.tong@db.comjoseph.huo@db.co
2、mthLukaZhu19CCPPartyCongress,revisedGDPgrowthand3QearningsquicktakeAtthe19thCCPPartyCongress,PresidentXigaveaspeechoutliningaplanResearchAnalystforChinainthelongterm,withoutmentioningthe2020growthtargetashis(+852)22036173predecessordidinthepast.3QGDPcameinat6.8%yoyinrea
3、lterms,inlineluka.zhu@db.comwithexpectations.OurChiefChinaEconomistZhiweiZhangnowexpects6.6%growthin4Qand6.8%forthefullyear.3Qearningsseasonhasjustgottenunderway;300+A-shareshaveannouncedresults,forwhichearningsgrew59%yoyin3Q,vs.45%yoyin2Qonacomparablebasis,withcyclical
4、(steel/chemical/paper)beingthemostrobustsectors.Weincludesomeofouranalysts’3Qresultscommentaryonpage4andalsokeyearningsupgradesestimateoverthepastmonthonpage7.Performanceandvaluations:HSCEI/MXCI/CSI300gained3.8%/2.5%/2.6%Inthepastfourweeks,HSCEIgained3.8%,outperformingM
5、SCIChina(+2.5%),A-shares(+2.6%)andEM(+1.3%).Environmental,insurance,banksandselectdefensivesled,whilerealestate,transportationandtelecompostedlosses.TheMSCIChina(ex.ADRs)12mforwardP/Estandsonparwithhistoricalaverageat11.5xwhileP/Bisat1.5x,ora12%discounttothehistoricalav
6、erage.A-shareCSI300rose2.6%inRMBtermsinthepastfourweeks,ledbydefensives,insuranceandlarge-caps.Theindextradesat13.6xand1.7x12mforwardearningsandbookvalue,respectively.DespitestrongYTDperformance,webelieveMSCIChinaremainsveryattractiveintermsofdiscounttoitshistoricalaver
7、ageascomparedtootherglobalindices.Macroandearnings:3Qmacroinline;material/propertyledearningsupgradeMacrodatawaslargelyinlinefor3Q/Sept:1)PMIstayedstrongasNBSPMIrosetoamulti-yearhigh.IPslightlybeatat6.6%yoyandisnotablyabovelastmonth’s6.0%;2)NewloansandTSFbeatexpectation
8、sagain.AdjustedTSFbalancegrowthwasstableat14.8%yoywhilecorp.M/LTloanbalancewasgrowingatanelevated17.4%yoy;3)In
