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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&2January2018IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup6.6%.KatherineGriffinEthaneup1c/galto23c/g
2、alResearchAssociate(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+6.6%.Weeklyloadingsup5.9%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased6.6%inWeek#52(ended12/23/2017)vs.a5.2%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareDavidHuangup1.5%.C
3、hemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalResearchAssociateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredavid-a.huang@db.comofweeklyloadingsincreased5.
4、9%YoY(versusa8.2%increaseinthepriorweek)andincreased2.9%sequentially(vs.a0.5%decreaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesup1c/galto23c/gal.Propaneflatat97c/galEthanepricesrose1.0c/gallastweekto23.1c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof19DowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD71.22Buyc/gal),contin
5、uingtheirrecoveryfollowingthe4c/galdeclinefourweeksagoAshland(ASH.N),USD71.20Buyonseveraldelayedcrackerprojectsandarobustbuildofethaneinventory.EastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD92.64BuyWhileUSethanesupply/demandfundamentalsremainloose,ethanerejection,Source:DeutscheBank
6、whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedfollowingtheSeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneexportfacilityinHouston.WeeklyPricePerformanceStartingin1H’18,weexpectUSethanes/dfundamentalstotightenfurther,WLKPdrivenby600kbpdofnewdemandfromthestart-upo
7、f8greenfieldethyleneCMPcrackersin’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetowardOLNitshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelvalue,withthepremiumreflectingPOTfractionation,transportationandstoragecosts.BasedonDB’s’18USNaturalCCVNTRGaspriceforecastof$3.30/MMB
8、tu,weestimateethanepriceswilllikelymoveFULtoward32c/galbyyear-end‘18.AXTAOMNPropanepricesrose0.4c/gallastweekto97.3c/gal.WhilepropaneHUNinventoriesweredown4%la
