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1、4December2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchSemiconductorDevicesSemiconductorsResearchAnalystsMONTHLYJohnW.Pitzer2125384610john.pitzer@credit-suisse.comOctoberSIASupportsAbove-SeasonalC4QStevenJozkowski2123252685BottomLine.SIAreportedOctoberRevof$37.1bn,down3.2%m/m,ABO
2、VEsteven.r.jozkowski@credit-suisse.comseasonalofdown9.1%m/m.OctRevgrew21.9%y/y,are-accelerationfromSeptember(+19.4%y/y)butbelowtheMaypeakof(+25.0%y/y).ExcludingMemory,SemiRevgrew8.8%y/yinOctober,are-accelerationfromSeptember(+6.3%y/y)butbelowtheMaypeak(+14.8%y/y).C4QRevex-
3、memoryistrackingup1.2%q/q,ABOVEseasonalofflatq/qandcurrentStreetestimatesofup0.7%q/q.BetterOctRevwasdrivenequallybyunitsandASPs–specificallyASPswereup5%m/m,9%y/y;ex-MemoryASPsup5%m/m,down3%y/y–y/ycomparestoup10%anddown2%respectivelyinSept.Ex-MemoryASPshaveonlybeenflatfortw
4、omonths(Dec/Jun)withaverageASPsdown4%y/yforthelast17monthsofthisupturn.■OctoberSegmentResults:OctoberupsidewasledbyMicro(15%ofRev)onabove-seasonalunitsandASPs–Memory,LogicandAnalogalsogrewABOVEseasonal,whileDiscrete/Opto/Sensors(16%ofRev)grewmostlyIN-LINEwithseasonal.Speci
5、fictoMemory(32%ofRev),DRAMbits/ASPswere+8%/+51%y/yvs.+17%/+60%inSept,andNANDbits/ASPswere+32%/+17%y/yvs.+20%/+19%inSept.■Y/YRevandUnitGrowthRe-Accelerated:OctSemiRevgrew21.9%y/y,anaccelerationfromSeptup19.4%y/y–albeitstillbelowpeakMayRevup25.0%y/y,andwellbelowmedianpeakmon
6、thlyy/yRevgrowthinthelast6cyclesof42%y/y.OctoberICunitsgrew11.4%y/y,anaccelerationfrom8.1%inSeptwellbutbelowtheMaypeakof19.6%y/yandmedianpeakmonthlyy/yunitgrowthinthelast6cyclesof35%y/y.■FullYearUpdate:Withmorethan80%oftheyearnowcomplete,SemiRevistrackingto$410bn,up21%y/yv
7、s.ourforecastof20%andamarkedimprovementfrom2015/2016of-0.2%/1.1%.Ex-memory,SemiRevistrackingto$286bn,up9%y/yin-linewithourforecastof9%andamarkedimprovementfrom2015/2016of0.5%/1.6%.WearecurrentlyestimatingCY18Revgrowthof7%y/ywithMemory,5%y/ywithoutMemory–theswingfactorforCY
8、18willbeASPs.UnlikepriorpeakswecontinuetoexpectONLYaslowingofgrowthtomid-singledigitsandN
